Part of: Erste Bank Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances Tiafoe
Erste Bank Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances Tiafoe
This Polymarket market covers who advances in the Erste Bank Open match between Lorenzo Musetti and Frances Tiafoe, scheduled for October 27, 2026. Current market odds were not included in the supplied data; PolySpotter reports one smart-money signal, with an alert stating that a 94% winner backs Tiafoe. The market is listed to resolve November 3, 2026, while its rules specify a November 10 deadline if no winner has been determined.
This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Musetti and Frances Tiafoe in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Musetti' if Lorenzo Musetti advances against Frances Tiafoe. This market will resolve to 'Frances Tiafoe' if Frances Tiafoe advances against Lorenzo Musetti. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $33,248.
Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games
Notable Trades
Serial cross-market bettor amid 85x volume spike
A serial cross-market trader placed a $2,217 Tiafoe bet amid an 85x pre-event volume spike, though their record does not show a strong edge over entry odds.
- An 85x surge over historical volume accompanied this $2,217 bet on Tiafoe.
- The bettor has a 71% win rate across a large history, though their average win price of 65% tempers the edge signal.
- Tiafoe was bought at 45¢ and is currently priced at 48¢.
$1,222 on Frances Tiafoe | Wallet win rate: 71%
94% winner backs Tiafoe
A highly profitable bettor with 692 resolved positions and a 94% win rate has placed a sizable $4,398 bet on Tiafoe.
- This bettor has won 649 of 692 resolved positions and is up over $1 million.
- They put $4,398 on Tiafoe at 58¢; the market is now 55¢.
- The wallet has traded across 644 events, with a reported 94% win rate.
$1,995 on Frances Tiafoe | Wallet win rate: 93%
Seven-wallet cluster with a proven sharp bettor
Seven wallets committed about $20.9K to Musetti during an 85x volume spike, including a bettor with an 89% record and substantial edge over average entry odds.
- Seven wallets bought Musetti for about $20,900, showing strong one-sided conviction.
- One bettor in the cluster has won 57 of 64 resolved bets, entering at an average 47¢.
- Trading volume spiked to 85 times its historical average as Musetti's odds rose 3 points over the day.
$21,182 on Lorenzo Musetti
Proven serial trader buys Tiafoe
A highly profitable, repeat cross-market trader bought Tiafoe at 44¢ amid an 85x volume spike.
- This bettor has won 76% of 139 resolved trades and is up $437,275.
- They bought Tiafoe at 44¢, and the market has since risen to 48¢.
- Trading volume is 85 times its historical average, adding a strong activity signal.
$2,234 on Frances Tiafoe | Wallet win rate: 78%
Serial cross-market bettor amid 85x volume spike
A serial cross-market trader placed a $2,217 Tiafoe bet amid an 85x pre-event volume spike, though their record does not show a strong edge over entry odds.
- An 85x surge over historical volume accompanied this $2,217 bet on Tiafoe.
- The bettor has a 71% win rate across a large history, though their average win price of 65% tempers the edge signal.
- Tiafoe was bought at 45¢ and is currently priced at 48¢.
$2,217 on Frances Tiafoe | Wallet win rate: 71%
94% winner backs Tiafoe
A highly profitable bettor with 692 resolved positions and a 94% win rate has placed a sizable $4,398 bet on Tiafoe.
- This bettor has won 649 of 692 resolved positions and is up over $1 million.
- They put $4,398 on Tiafoe at 58¢; the market is now 55¢.
- The wallet has traded across 644 events, with a reported 94% win rate.
$4,398 on Frances Tiafoe | Wallet win rate: 93%
Top Holders
- 0xf12f...b30f — Frances Tiafoe, $17,032 (93% win rate)
- 0x6b91...06c4 — Frances Tiafoe, $15,385 (97% win rate)
- 0x54ba...04e4 — Frances Tiafoe, $13,414 (73% win rate)
- 0xfe78...0319 — Frances Tiafoe, $13,020 (64% win rate)
- 0x2101...9fa4 — Frances Tiafoe, $10,000 (76% win rate)
- 0xdf0f...87fc — Frances Tiafoe, $9,520
- 0x7750...a3f3 — Frances Tiafoe, $8,650 (28% win rate)
- 0x0d6a...aa98 — Frances Tiafoe, $6,241 (60% win rate)
- 0x2180...08f0 — Frances Tiafoe, $5,092 (78% win rate)
- 0x5901...63a2 — Frances Tiafoe, $4,644 (92% win rate)
Related Theses
Türkiye avoids defeat
Covers 3 related markets
Brazil-Japan match will happen
Covers 3 related markets
Türkiye-US match gets played
Covers 3 related markets
Japan-Sweden match will happen
Covers 3 related markets
Several favorites could win the World Cup
Covers 7 related markets
Argentina will not win
Covers 3 related markets
Fed will hike rates in September
Covers 2 related markets
No deal by May
Covers 2 related markets
MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin in June
Covers 2 related markets
Iran avoids defeat vs New Zealand
Covers 3 related markets
