What is the Extended FDV above $300M prediction market?

This market predicts whether Extended’s token will have a fully diluted valuation greater than $300 million one day after launch. If the FDV is above $300M at the specified time, it resolves Yes; otherwise, it resolves No.

How is Extended’s FDV calculated for this market?

The market defines fully diluted valuation as the total token supply multiplied by the token price. That value must be above $300 million at the resolution time for a Yes outcome.

When does the Extended FDV market resolve?

The market measures FDV at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following Extended’s token launch. The listed resolution date is January 1, 2027, though the key measurement depends on the actual launch timing.

What counts as a launch for Extended’s token?

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered launched. A private allocation, non-transferable token, or untradeable listing would not meet the market’s launch condition.

What smart money activity is PolySpotter tracking?

PolySpotter shows $5,069 in smart money tracked for this market and 1 smart money signal. Recent alerts include a sharp linked wallet buying Yes, funded-cluster FDV betting activity, a new wallet betting No, and a thin-market whale alert.

Part of: Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?

This prediction market asks whether Extended’s token will have a fully diluted valuation above $300 million at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after its launch. FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price, and the market is listed with a resolution date of January 1, 2027. PolySpotter is tracking $5,069 in smart money activity, including a recent sharp-linked wallet buying Yes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $51,886.

Categories: Crypto, Pre-Market, Extended, FDV

Notable Trades

Sharp linked wallet buys Yes

Proven profitable wallet with a 79% track record sold No, effectively buying Yes, alongside linked-wallet and cross-market signals on a crypto launch FDV market.

This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $11.7K lifetime.
Three linked wallets share the same funder and have been active on this thesis across runs.
The $5.1K trade was larger than recent daily volume, showing conviction in a quieter market.

$5,069 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 41%

Sharp funded-cluster FDV bettor

Surface: a profitable 80% wallet with linked-wallet backing is buying No in size on a relatively quiet crypto FDV market.

This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $13.9K lifetime.
Three wallets share the same funder and have been seen together before, adding conviction to the No side.
The $7.8K No buy was nearly 3x the market’s recent 24h volume, and No is now cheaper than their average entry.

$5,936 on No | Wallet win rate: 41%

Sharp funded-cluster FDV bettor

Surface: a profitable 80% wallet with linked-wallet backing is buying No in size on a relatively quiet crypto FDV market.

This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $13.9K lifetime.
Three wallets share the same funder and have been seen together before, adding conviction to the No side.
The $7.8K No buy was nearly 3x the market’s recent 24h volume, and No is now cheaper than their average entry.

$7,781 on No | Wallet win rate: 41%

95% winner buying No

Sharp-wallet override: a 95% winner with positive lifetime P&L is buying No at 52¢ on a crypto FDV market despite only a modest cross-market signal.

This bettor has won 75 of 79 resolved trades and is up about $9.3K lifetime.
They bought No at 52¢, implying they think the market is underpricing the chance Extended stays below $300M FDV.
The wallet has also positioned across another related market in the same event, suggesting a broader thesis.

$1,300 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%

$29K thin-market whale

A $29K Yes buy on a thin, wide-spread crypto FDV market looks like a high-conviction position despite no wallet track record.

A single wallet put $29K on Yes, over 35x the low 24h volume flagged at the time.
The market has moved up 11 points in a day, so this buy aligns with strong recent momentum.
Entry around 49¢ implies the bettor sees near-even odds as mispriced.

$29,000 on Yes

New wallet betting No

A 5-day-old repeat large bettor is taking a $2.8K No position on a quiet crypto launch FDV market, with size well above recent 24h volume but no proven track record yet.

A 5-day-old wallet is making repeat large bets, putting $2.8K on No across this event.
The position is large for current activity, at over 3x the market’s $817 24h volume.
This is a crypto launch valuation market where informed views on token supply, listing price, or launch timing can matter.

$2,800 on No