What does the Extended FDV above $500M market predict?

This market predicts whether Extended’s token will reach a fully diluted valuation greater than $500 million one day after launch. If the FDV is above $500M at the specified time, the market resolves Yes; otherwise it resolves No.

How is Extended’s FDV calculated for this market?

The market defines FDV as the token’s total supply multiplied by its token price. The relevant measurement time is 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the token’s launch.

When does this Extended prediction market resolve?

The listed resolution date is January 1, 2027, though the actual outcome depends on when Extended’s token launches and what its FDV is one day after launch.

What counts as a token launch for this market?

Extended’s token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered launched. A private allocation, claim event, or non-transferable token would not necessarily meet the market’s launch condition.

What are smart money signals showing for this market?

PolySpotter tracks $6,736 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market. Recent alerts include sharp or profitable linked-wallet activity on the No side, suggesting some tracked wallets are skeptical of a $500M+ FDV outcome.

Part of: Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?

This prediction market asks whether Extended’s token will have a fully diluted valuation above $500 million at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after its public launch. FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price, and the token must be publicly transferable and tradable to count as launched. PolySpotter currently tracks $6,736 in smart money activity on this market, including recent linked-wallet No signals.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $16,579.

Categories: Crypto, Pre-Market, Extended, FDV

Notable Trades

Sharp linked-wallet No bet

Sharp profitable wallet with an 80% resolved win rate is buying No heavily, alongside linked-wallet clustering and cross-market positioning on a relatively quiet crypto FDV market.

This bettor wins 80% of resolved bets and is up $13.9K lifetime.
Three linked wallets share the same funder and are putting $8.8K behind the same view.
The bet is large for this market, at more than 160% of recent 24h volume.

$6,736 on No | Wallet win rate: 41%

Profitable linked-wallet bettor

Surface because a profitable 80% win-rate wallet is adding a No position with linked-wallet and cross-market corroboration despite the modest trade size.

This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $13.9K lifetime.
Three wallets tied to the same funder are involved, suggesting coordinated conviction.
They bought No at 74¢ and the market has already moved to 78¢.

$1,031 on No | Wallet win rate: 41%

Sharp linked-wallet No bet

Sharp profitable wallet with an 80% resolved win rate is buying No heavily, alongside linked-wallet clustering and cross-market positioning on a relatively quiet crypto FDV market.

This bettor wins 80% of resolved bets and is up $13.9K lifetime.
Three linked wallets share the same funder and are putting $8.8K behind the same view.
The bet is large for this market, at more than 160% of recent 24h volume.

$8,812 on No | Wallet win rate: 41%