FDA approves a psychedelic for medical use in 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approves any psychedelic substance for medical use between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Psychedelic substances include: LSD, Psilocybin, DMT, Mescaline, MDMA, MDA, PCP, DXM, Ibogaine, Salvia divinorum, 2C family, and Ayahuasca. An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application The following constitute qualifying approvals: Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs The following do not constitute qualifying approvals: Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration FDA requests for additional information or studies Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only Approval only for export or for use outside the United States Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form If the listed drug is approved within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval. Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify. The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,049.
Categories: Mushrooms, Politics, drug, FDA, Psilocybin, Food and Drug Administration, LSD
Notable Trades
Profitable serial market trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought No on a plausible FDA/regulatory market, with the position already moving from 38¢ to 46¢, though sizing is modest.
- This bettor has a long track record: 63% wins across 888 resolved bets and $374K in profit.
- They regularly trade related markets, with $310K deployed across 50 markets in 41 events.
- They bought No at 38¢, and the market has already moved to 46¢ in their favor.
$1,049 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
Top Holders
- 0xb89f...1c44 — Yes, $5,526 (48% win rate)
- 0xdaef...54e9 — No, $3,693 (63% win rate)
- 0xac4a...bf1e — No, $1,181
- 0x50ff...e0b8 — Yes, $934
- 0x2c41...133e — No, $853 (59% win rate)
- 0x215a...254c — No, $383
- 0xe151...a852 — No, $350
- 0xaee7...05e9 — Yes, $300
- 0xc602...7fc1 — No, $200 (39% win rate)
- 0xa5e3...4d7e — No, $177 (28% win rate)
