Part of: UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)

Fight to Go the Distance?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $47,959.

Notable Trades

70% winner scaling into No

A highly active bettor with a 70% win rate added nearly $9,500 to an existing No position during a major volume spike, and the price has since risen to 56%.

This bettor has won 70% of 4,764 resolved trades and is up $147,393 lifetime.
They added nearly $9,500 to an existing $40,000 No position, signaling increased conviction rather than a one-off bet.
The market saw a 69.3x volume spike, while No moved from the 47–48¢ entry range to 56%.

$9,475 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Four-wallet No conviction cluster

Four wallets concentrated nearly $43,000 on No, including highly profitable bettors, while a 40x volume spike and thin liquidity amplify the directional signal.

Four wallets bought No for nearly $43,000—over three times the market's displayed liquidity—and No has already risen from roughly 44–48¢ to 49¢.
One participating bettor wins 87% of 607 resolved trades and is up nearly $100,000.
Trading volume spiked 40x above its recent average, suggesting unusually strong positioning well before the fight.

$36,565 on No

87% winner adds to No

A highly profitable serial trader with an 87% win rate is adding nearly $2,000 to an existing No position at 47¢.

This bettor wins 87% of 607 resolved trades and is up nearly $100,000.
The trader is adding $1,919 to an existing No position, showing continued conviction rather than a one-off bet.
The 47¢ entry implies they view No as meaningfully undervalued near the current 46% market price.

$1,919 on No | Wallet win rate: 55%

Top Holders

0x60d0...2e36 — Outcome 12617137, $41,099 (99% win rate)
0xdc41...dd7e — Outcome 12617137, $40,000 (74% win rate)
0xe7a2...ae70 — Outcome 12617137, $25,922 (51% win rate)
0x6a3c...2db9 — Outcome 12617137, $3,241 (14% win rate)
0x83b8...c300 — Outcome 12617137, $2,128
0x587c...215d — Outcome 12617137, $2,102
0x5a6d...52d3 — Outcome 12617137, $1,763
0xbbf7...afa8 — Outcome 12617137, $1,541
0xa083...19c9 — Outcome 12617137, $1,420 (54% win rate)
0x206a...ea44 — Outcome 12617137, $1,352

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Fight to Go the Distance?

ResolvedUFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)$47,959 tracked3 signalsSportsUFCGames

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Islam Makhachev and Ian Machado Garry at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Draws decided by the judges' scorecards after all scheduled rounds are completed will resolve "Yes." Technical decisions or technical draws declared before all rounds are completed will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Price History — “No”

57¢

47¢

37¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction