Part of: US Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz

Game Spread: Alcaraz (-6.5) vs Paul (+6.5)

This tennis prediction market covers the Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul game spread for their September 6, 2026 match. Alcaraz resolves as the winner if he finishes at least 7 games ahead across all sets; otherwise, the market resolves to Paul. The market currently shows three smart money alerts favoring Paul, including a 96% winner scaling into the Paul side.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,673.

Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games

Notable Trades

96% winner scales into Paul

A highly proven bettor with a 96% win rate and substantial edge is adding $2,500 to an existing Paul position despite the market moving against it.

  • This bettor has won 410 of 429 resolved positions and is up $375,375 lifetime.
  • They added $2,500 to Paul at 60¢ while the current price is 55%, signaling strong conviction despite adverse movement.
  • The bet was over nine times the market's recent 24-hour volume, making it a notably concentrated position.

$2,500 on Paul | Wallet win rate: 95%

Sharp bettor scales into Paul

A highly profitable sports bettor with a 77% win rate is adding $2,746 to an already concentrated Paul position in an exceptionally thin market.

  • This bettor has won 77% of 269 resolved trades and is up $416,960 lifetime.
  • They added $2,746 to Paul at 57¢, increasing an existing $4,817 position rather than merely taking profit.
  • The trade is more than 10 times the market’s 24-hour volume, signaling strong conviction in a thin sports market.

$1,428 on Paul | Wallet win rate: 75%

Sharp bettor scales into Paul

A highly profitable sports bettor with a 77% win rate is adding $2,746 to an already concentrated Paul position in an exceptionally thin market.

  • This bettor has won 77% of 269 resolved trades and is up $416,960 lifetime.
  • They added $2,746 to Paul at 57¢, increasing an existing $4,817 position rather than merely taking profit.
  • The trade is more than 10 times the market’s 24-hour volume, signaling strong conviction in a thin sports market.

$2,746 on Paul | Wallet win rate: 75%

Top Holders

  1. 0xf3a6...71bd Outcome 31074028, $7,279 (75% win rate)
  2. 0xf12f...b30f Outcome 31074028, $4,181 (95% win rate)
  3. 0xe54d...fdec Outcome 31074028, $1,718 (69% win rate)
  4. 0xc470...c792 Outcome 31074028, $235 (33% win rate)
  5. 0xf34f...4d6e Outcome 31074028, $181
  6. 0xc28e...bc55 Outcome 31074028, $165
  7. 0xf6f7...c7a2 Outcome 31074028, $123
  8. 0xb6fc...b24e Outcome 31074028, $100
  9. 0x5929...4684 Outcome 31074028, $95 (76% win rate)
  10. 0x0ac5...f963 Outcome 31074028, $88

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Game Spread: Alcaraz (-6.5) vs Paul (+6.5)

1dUS Open ATP: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz$6,673 tracked3 signalsTennisSportsGames

This market will resolve to "Alcaraz" if Carlos Alcaraz wins 6.5 or more total games than Tommy Paul in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for September 6, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Paul". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play. For example, if the match ends at a point where Carlos Alcaraz could no longer have finished 6.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Paul". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “Paul
60¢
54¢
49¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Game Spread: Alcaraz (-6.5) vs Paul (+6.5)

5d ago

$2,500 on Paul at 60¢

Game Spread: Alcaraz (-6.5) vs Paul (+6.5)

5d ago

$1,428 on Paul at 57¢

Game Spread: Alcaraz (-6.5) vs Paul (+6.5)

5d ago

$2,746 on Paul at 57¢

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