Part of: US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Arthur Rinderknech

Game Spread: Medvedev (-4.5) vs Rinderknech (+4.5)

This Polymarket tennis market covers the game spread for Daniil Medvedev vs Arthur Rinderknech on September 4, 2026. Medvedev wins the market if he finishes at least 4.5 games ahead across all sets; otherwise, Rinderknech wins. The market is scheduled to resolve by September 11, 2026, and currently tracks $38,097 in smart money, including a recent Rinderknech buy from an 89% win-rate bettor.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $38,097.

Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games

Notable Trades

89% win-rate bettor buys Rinderknech

A highly profitable serial trader with 899 resolved positions made a concentrated Rinderknech bet worth over 10 times the market's 24-hour volume.

  • This bettor wins 89% of 899 resolved positions and is up $3.36 million lifetime.
  • They spent about $29,800 buying Rinderknech, more than 10 times the market's $2,387 24-hour volume.
  • The two Rinderknech entries average roughly 49¢ while the outcome is now priced near 55¢, suggesting meaningful conviction in a thin market.

$38,097 on Rinderknech | Wallet win rate: 89%

Top Holders

  1. 0xf28e...cab2 Outcome 15090451, $29,692 (89% win rate)
  2. 0x21f3...35e3 Outcome 15090451, $1,227 (74% win rate)
  3. 0xd619...c461 Outcome 15090451, $509
  4. 0xdbdd...a5de Outcome 15090451, $508 (62% win rate)
  5. 0xb6fc...b24e Outcome 15090451, $196
  6. 0x3c32...7156 Outcome 15090451, $151
  7. 0x5929...4684 Outcome 15090451, $101 (76% win rate)
  8. 0x5d40...ba95 Outcome 15090451, $76
  9. 0xa68d...eab5 Outcome 15090451, $56
  10. 0x5210...bd53 Outcome 15090451, $43

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Game Spread: Medvedev (-4.5) vs Rinderknech (+4.5)

ResolvedUS Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Arthur Rinderknech$38,097 tracked1 signalTennisSportsGames

This market will resolve to "Medvedev" if Daniil Medvedev wins 4.5 or more total games than Arthur Rinderknech in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Rinderknech". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play. For example, if the match ends at a point where Daniil Medvedev could no longer have finished 4.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Rinderknech". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “Medvedev
96¢
72¢
48¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Game Spread: Medvedev (-4.5) vs Rinderknech (+4.5)

7d ago

$38,097 on Rinderknech at 49¢

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