Part of: Geneva Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Edas Butvilas
Geneva Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Edas Butvilas
This Polymarket covers the Geneva Open tennis match between Lorenzo Sonego and Edas Butvilas, scheduled for May 18, 2026 at 1:30 PM ET. The market resolves to the player who advances, with final resolution expected by May 25, 2026 if a winner is determined. PolySpotter is tracking $4,529 in smart money activity, including recent profitable-wallet interest in Edas Butvilas and underdog flow.
10 smart money signals detected, totaling $38,568.
Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games
Notable Trades
Elite serial sports bettor
A highly profitable 80% lifetime bettor bought Edas Butvilas at 88¢, adding a sharp-wallet signal to a strong price move and volume spike.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $3.6M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 227 events with $4.0M in tracked volume.
- They bought Edas Butvilas at 88¢ before the market moved to 100¢.
$4,529 on Edas Butvilas | Wallet win rate: 80%
Profitable new wallet joining cluster
A 2-day-old profitable wallet added $4,000 to Edas Butvilas amid a 6-wallet one-sided move, major volume spike, and rising price.
- This 2-day-old bettor is already up $6,606 and has now had 8 large-bet alerts.
- Six wallets are all buying Edas Butvilas, totaling $16,017 in the same direction.
- Market volume is up 149x versus normal and Butvilas has moved up about 15 percentage points.
$4,000 on Edas Butvilas | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable serial sports bettor
Massively profitable serial sports bettor bought Edas Butvilas amid one-sided flow from 6 wallets, a major volume spike, and a 15-point price move.
- This bettor has a huge track record: 73% wins and over $10.1M in lifetime profit.
- Six wallets are all buying Edas Butvilas, totaling about $16K on the same side.
- Market activity is surging, with volume 149x above normal and Edas Butvilas up 15 points.
$1,095 on Edas Butvilas | Wallet win rate: 72%
New profitable whale joins Edas flow
High-score tennis alert with a 144x pre-event volume spike, three-wallet Edas buying, and a very new repeat whale with early profits buying at 59¢.
- A 2-day-old repeat bettor with $6.6K profit has now put $4K on Edas Butvilas at 59¢.
- Three wallets bought $7.4K of Edas, helping move the price from the mid-40¢ range to 60¢.
- Volume is 144x above normal before the match, suggesting a major pre-event repricing.
$7,392 on Edas Butvilas
80% winner backing underdog
Sharp 80% lifetime tennis bettor bought Lorenzo Sonego alongside one-sided flow and a major pre-event volume spike, despite the price later moving against the entry.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved positions and is up $185K lifetime.
- Three wallets bought the same side for $6.8K during a 144x pre-event volume spike.
- The market moved against their 55¢ entry, so current odds are cheaper than the sharp bettor paid.
$1,696 on Lorenzo Sonego | Wallet win rate: 80%
$10M serial bettor
High-conviction Sonego buy from a hugely profitable serial cross-market trader, backed by one-sided flow and a major pre-event volume spike despite the price moving against the original entry.
- This bettor has won 73% of 6,752 resolved bets and is up $10.1M lifetime.
- Three wallets bought the same side, totaling $6.8K on Lorenzo Sonego.
- Volume spiked 144x above normal, and Sonego now trades below this bettor’s 55¢ entry.
$3,287 on Lorenzo Sonego | Wallet win rate: 72%
Profitable cluster buying dip
High-scoring tennis alert with a 5-wallet Sonego cluster, major pre-match volume spike, and several profitable bettors, though opposing Butvilas flow makes it contested.
- Five wallets bought $11.7k of Sonego, including multiple profitable bettors with strong histories.
- One wallet in the group wins 85% of resolved bets and is up about $36.9k lifetime.
- Sonego has fallen to 40¢ after their buys, so the same side is now cheaper than the cluster’s average entry.
$11,743 on Lorenzo Sonego
Profitable serial sports trader
Profitable high-volume serial sports trader bought Lorenzo Sonego at 59¢, with a 74% win rate across 694 resolved bets and $361k lifetime profit.
- This bettor wins 74% of resolved trades and is up $361k lifetime.
- They have traded across 435 events, suggesting a repeatable sports-betting process rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 59¢ implies they see Sonego as meaningfully more likely than the market price.
$1,200 on Lorenzo Sonego | Wallet win rate: 74%
Profitable serial sports bettor
Profitable high-volume serial sports bettor with a 70% long-run win rate is buying Sonego at 58¢.
- This bettor has won 70% of 23,525 resolved bets and is up $146,675 lifetime.
- They have traded across 301 events with over $1.1M in cross-market activity, suggesting a repeatable sports-betting process.
- Entry at 58¢ implies they see Sonego as meaningfully better than a coin flip.
$1,125 on Lorenzo Sonego | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable serial sports bettor
Surfacing because this is a proven serial sports bettor with a 79% win rate and $443k lifetime profit buying Sonego at 58¢.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up about $443k lifetime.
- They have traded across 700 events with over $3.6M in total activity.
- Entry at 58¢ suggests they see Sonego as meaningfully undervalued.
$2,500 on Lorenzo Sonego | Wallet win rate: 80%
Top Holders
- 0xfe78...0319 — Outcome 36947540, $48,128 (72% win rate)
- 0x5234...4c4f — Outcome 36947540, $25,000 (62% win rate)
- 0x2005...75ea — Outcome 36947540, $9,883 (56% win rate)
- 0xc807...8038 — Outcome 36947540, $8,000 (77% win rate)
- 0x3ca9...698d — Outcome 36947540, $7,591 (92% win rate)
- 0x664a...fc5f — Outcome 36947540, $6,053
- 0x479e...91c3 — Outcome 36947540, $4,287 (80% win rate)
- 0x76cc...fbbc — Outcome 36947540, $3,507 (33% win rate)
- 0x4748...9666 — Outcome 36947540, $3,175 (46% win rate)
- 0xa9c4...7433 — Outcome 36947540, $3,084 (80% win rate)
