Part of: Geneva Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Mariano Navone
Geneva Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Mariano Navone
This Polymarket covers the Geneva Open match between Marco Trungelliti and Mariano Navone, resolving to the player who advances. PolySpotter is tracking live market odds plus $14,166 in smart money activity across 2 signals, with recent alerts pointing to sharp tennis wallets moving the price. The market is scheduled to resolve by May 25, 2026, unless the match is canceled, tied, or delayed beyond the market rules.
7 smart money signals detected, totaling $33,021.
Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games
Notable Trades
92% winner fading favorite
A highly profitable 92% winner made a contrarian sell of Navone, effectively backing Trungelliti, though the market has since moved sharply against the trade.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved bets and is up about $90K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 519 events and $915K in volume.
- This was a contrarian fade of the 82¢ favorite, effectively backing the underdog at 18¢.
$1,856 on Marco Trungelliti | Wallet win rate: 92%
Profitable traders buying collapse
A coordinated $12.3k contrarian buy on Mariano Navone is notable because it includes very high-volume, profitable tennis-style wallets, though the market has moved sharply against the early entries.
- A bettor up $9.6M lifetime added to Mariano Navone near 9–10¢ after the price collapsed.
- Four wallets put $12.3k on the same side, including two serial sports traders with 70%+ historical win rates.
- Navone has fallen from roughly coin-flip levels to 6¢, making this a high-risk contrarian entry rather than a momentum trade.
$12,310 on Mariano Navone
Coordinated tennis steam
Coordinated Marco buying hit before a 50-point odds move, backed by a serial cross-market bettor, though the current 86¢ price is well above the original entry zone.
- Four wallets bought Marco in the same window, getting in around 57¢ before the market jumped to 86¢.
- This market saw an 18x volume spike, suggesting fast pre-match money moved the line hard.
- One participating bettor has traded across 154 similar events with a 70% win rate, though the best copy price has likely passed.
$11,132 on Marco Trungelliti
Sharp tennis wallets flipped odds
Surface because a profitable 81% sports bettor joined a same-side Marco cluster before a major odds move, though opposing Navone flow makes it less clean.
- A bettor who wins 81% of resolved bets and is up $61k bought Marco before the price moved to 60¢.
- Three wallets put $4.2k on Marco in minutes, with entries around 37–55¢.
- Marco’s odds jumped about 17 points, suggesting this cluster helped catch the move early.
$4,189 on Marco Trungelliti
85% win-rate tennis sharp
Sharp profitable tennis bettor with an 85% resolved win rate is effectively backing Marco Trungelliti at 29¢ against current 32¢ odds.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved bets and is up $34,087 lifetime.
- They are a serial sports trader across 120 events with $333k in volume.
- Selling Navone at 71¢ is effectively buying Trungelliti at 29¢, below the current 32¢ price.
$1,077 on Marco Trungelliti | Wallet win rate: 85%
85% tennis bettor buying favorite
Sharp sports bettor with an 85% record and positive lifetime P&L bought Mariano Navone at 81¢ amid a pre-match volume spike.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved bets and is up $35.3K lifetime.
- They are a serial sports trader across 119 events with the same 85% hit rate.
- They bought Mariano Navone at 81¢, and the market has already moved to 84¢.
$1,232 on Mariano Navone | Wallet win rate: 85%
Profitable serial sports trader
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader bought Marco Trungelliti at 15¢ and the market has already moved to 22¢.
- This bettor is up $3.7M lifetime across more than 1,000 resolved markets.
- They have traded 167 events and nearly $10M in cross-market positions, suggesting a seasoned sports strategy.
- They bought Marco Trungelliti at 15¢, and the market has already moved to 22¢.
$1,226 on Marco Trungelliti | Wallet win rate: 57%
Top Holders
- 0x2c33...0563 — Outcome 51845458, $71,001 (57% win rate)
- 0xfe78...0319 — Outcome 51845458, $13,148 (72% win rate)
- 0xcf6c...7e66 — Outcome 51845458, $5,775 (80% win rate)
- 0x0828...a1a6 — Outcome 51845458, $4,260 (56% win rate)
- 0x664a...fc5f — Outcome 51845458, $3,831
- 0x5c64...737f — Outcome 51845458, $3,190
- 0x3f9f...51b0 — Outcome 51845458, $2,750
- 0x16db...8d0f — Outcome 51845458, $2,524 (88% win rate)
- 0xa216...3055 — Outcome 51845458, $2,500
- 0xcd3f...8e2b — Outcome 51845458, $2,464 (86% win rate)
