Part of: Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by...?

Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?

This prediction market tracks whether Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, or the Israeli military will publicly and definitively announce a halt to Israel’s offensive in Lebanon by April 17, 2026. For a Yes resolution, the announcement must clearly cover both offensive ground operations and military strikes such as airstrikes or artillery. The market itself resolves by June 30, 2026, based on whether such a qualifying announcement is made by the deadline.

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $32,663.

Categories: Hezbollah, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Lebanon, Israel

Notable Trades

74% winner re-entering Yes

A proven high-volume trader with a 74% win rate re-entered this market with a sizable Yes buy after already trading it before, making this a notable thesis-driven bet despite the expensive 90¢ entry.

  • This bettor has won 229 of 311 resolved markets and is up about $216k overall.
  • They put $5.2k back into Yes after previously closing a position here, showing renewed conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
  • The trade came during a 23x volume spike and helped push Yes sharply higher, suggesting strong directional flow.

$5,230 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

88% win-rate geopolitical bettor

A highly profitable trader with an 88% win rate and nearly $1M in realized gains bought Yes after a sharp 1-day pullback, making this a strong copy-trade signal despite the moderate size.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $920k on roughly $5.0M invested
  • They trade heavily across related events — 81 events and 131 markets — which suggests a repeatable edge in news-driven markets
  • They bought Yes at 54¢ after the market fell 14.5 points in a day, a level that now trades around 57¢

$3,888 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%

Sharp cluster buying the dip

Four wallets piled into Yes on a geopolitics market after a sharp 1-day drop, including multiple high-volume cross-market traders with strong long-run records, making this coordinated dip-buying flow worth watching.

  • Four wallets bought Yes together for $5.1k after the market fell 25% in a day
  • Two wallets have strong records, including one bettor who wins 81% of 517 resolved trades
  • Entries from 50¢ to 65¢ suggest they see the post-selloff price as too low on a news-driven market

$5,125 on Yes

5-wallet No cluster

Five wallets, including two very profitable ones and one 93% winner, piled into No for $15k in a geopolitical market even after a sharp move, showing coordinated conviction worth watching.

  • Five wallets bought No for $15k, and two are highly profitable bettors with $216k and $1.4M lifetime profit.
  • One wallet wins 93% of its resolved bets, though on heavy favorites, adding some credibility to the cluster.
  • They bought No at 60-67¢ in a live geopolitics market after a 32-point Yes surge, signaling a strong view that the move went too far.

$15,007 on No

Proven geopolitics grinder

A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a large positive track record reopened a No position after a sharp market move, suggesting renewed conviction on a geopolitics market.

  • This bettor has won 67% of 1,276 resolved markets and is up about $216k overall
  • They reopened a No position at 62¢ after a fast 13.5-point move, showing fresh conviction rather than routine profit-taking
  • The market is active and liquid enough that this looks like a deliberate thesis bet, not random noise

$2,160 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%

90% winner buys breakout

A high-win-rate wallet bought into a sharp market move by effectively taking Yes at 76¢ after a major downside break in No, making this a potentially informed momentum trade worth watching despite the modest size.

  • This bettor wins 90% of their resolved markets, with 18 wins in 20 bets.
  • The trade effectively buys Yes at 76¢ by selling No at 24¢ after a 56-point break beyond the market’s prior range.
  • The market is moving fast, up 45 points in a day, and this trade joined that momentum even with a wide 14-point spread.

$1,254 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%

Top Holders

  1. 0xd426...334a Outcome 77590452, $38,715 (41% win rate)
  2. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 77590452, $18,900 (82% win rate)
  3. 0xcc26...32ca Outcome 77590452, $11,068 (40% win rate)
  4. 0x7d0a...6477 Outcome 77590452, $6,237
  5. 0x41d1...0a19 Outcome 77590452, $6,064
  6. 0x7b17...8187 Outcome 77590452, $4,494
  7. 0xdf38...9005 Outcome 77590452, $3,270
  8. 0x4a2b...af20 Outcome 77590452, $3,000 (43% win rate)
  9. 0xc087...6201 Outcome 77590452, $2,579
  10. 0xec4c...ee64 Outcome 77590452, $2,162 (50% win rate)

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Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?

30dIsrael announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by...?$32,663 tracked6 signalsHezbollahGeopoliticsIsrael x IranLebanonIsrael

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, or the Israeli military publicly and definitively announces a halt to the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying announcements must unambiguously indicate a halt to offensive ground operations as well as a halt to military strikes, such as airstrikes, artillery fire, or similar offensive strikes against targets in Lebanon. Statements that unambiguously imply both the cessation of offensive ground operations and strikes may suffice even if not stated explicitly (e.g, “The Israeli Defense Forces have concluded their operations in Lebanon”). An announcement of a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory is not required. Announcements that do not indicate a halt to the offensive military operations as a whole (e.g., referring only to a specific phase, type of operation, or geographic subset of operations) will not qualify. Qualifying announcements must clearly indicate that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon has concluded, is halted, or will conclude or be halted on a specific date, even if only for a defined, limited period. A temporary ceasefire agreement will qualify if it explicitly indicates that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon is halted. Informal announcements, statements that the offensive will halt at some undefined future time, or statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, and the Israeli military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether Israeli military hostilities actually halt in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.

Notable Trades

Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?

44d ago

$5,230 on Yes at 90¢

Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?

44d ago

$3,888 on Yes at 54¢

Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?

44d ago

$5,125 on Yes at 58¢

Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?

44d ago

$15,007 on No at 63¢

Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?

44d ago

$2,160 on No at 62¢

Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?

45d ago

$1,254 on Yes at 76¢

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