Part of: Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by...?
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?
This prediction market tracks whether Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, or the Israeli military will publicly and definitively announce a halt to Israel’s offensive in Lebanon by April 17, 2026. For a Yes resolution, the announcement must clearly cover both offensive ground operations and military strikes such as airstrikes or artillery. The market itself resolves by June 30, 2026, based on whether such a qualifying announcement is made by the deadline.
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $32,663.
Categories: Hezbollah, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Lebanon, Israel
Notable Trades
74% winner re-entering Yes
A proven high-volume trader with a 74% win rate re-entered this market with a sizable Yes buy after already trading it before, making this a notable thesis-driven bet despite the expensive 90¢ entry.
- This bettor has won 229 of 311 resolved markets and is up about $216k overall.
- They put $5.2k back into Yes after previously closing a position here, showing renewed conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
- The trade came during a 23x volume spike and helped push Yes sharply higher, suggesting strong directional flow.
$5,230 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
88% win-rate geopolitical bettor
A highly profitable trader with an 88% win rate and nearly $1M in realized gains bought Yes after a sharp 1-day pullback, making this a strong copy-trade signal despite the moderate size.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $920k on roughly $5.0M invested
- They trade heavily across related events — 81 events and 131 markets — which suggests a repeatable edge in news-driven markets
- They bought Yes at 54¢ after the market fell 14.5 points in a day, a level that now trades around 57¢
$3,888 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
Sharp cluster buying the dip
Four wallets piled into Yes on a geopolitics market after a sharp 1-day drop, including multiple high-volume cross-market traders with strong long-run records, making this coordinated dip-buying flow worth watching.
- Four wallets bought Yes together for $5.1k after the market fell 25% in a day
- Two wallets have strong records, including one bettor who wins 81% of 517 resolved trades
- Entries from 50¢ to 65¢ suggest they see the post-selloff price as too low on a news-driven market
$5,125 on Yes
5-wallet No cluster
Five wallets, including two very profitable ones and one 93% winner, piled into No for $15k in a geopolitical market even after a sharp move, showing coordinated conviction worth watching.
- Five wallets bought No for $15k, and two are highly profitable bettors with $216k and $1.4M lifetime profit.
- One wallet wins 93% of its resolved bets, though on heavy favorites, adding some credibility to the cluster.
- They bought No at 60-67¢ in a live geopolitics market after a 32-point Yes surge, signaling a strong view that the move went too far.
$15,007 on No
Proven geopolitics grinder
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a large positive track record reopened a No position after a sharp market move, suggesting renewed conviction on a geopolitics market.
- This bettor has won 67% of 1,276 resolved markets and is up about $216k overall
- They reopened a No position at 62¢ after a fast 13.5-point move, showing fresh conviction rather than routine profit-taking
- The market is active and liquid enough that this looks like a deliberate thesis bet, not random noise
$2,160 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%
90% winner buys breakout
A high-win-rate wallet bought into a sharp market move by effectively taking Yes at 76¢ after a major downside break in No, making this a potentially informed momentum trade worth watching despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 90% of their resolved markets, with 18 wins in 20 bets.
- The trade effectively buys Yes at 76¢ by selling No at 24¢ after a 56-point break beyond the market’s prior range.
- The market is moving fast, up 45 points in a day, and this trade joined that momentum even with a wide 14-point spread.
$1,254 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
Top Holders
- 0xd426...334a — Outcome 77590452, $38,715 (41% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 77590452, $18,900 (82% win rate)
- 0xcc26...32ca — Outcome 77590452, $11,068 (40% win rate)
- 0x7d0a...6477 — Outcome 77590452, $6,237
- 0x41d1...0a19 — Outcome 77590452, $6,064
- 0x7b17...8187 — Outcome 77590452, $4,494
- 0xdf38...9005 — Outcome 77590452, $3,270
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 77590452, $3,000 (43% win rate)
- 0xc087...6201 — Outcome 77590452, $2,579
- 0xec4c...ee64 — Outcome 77590452, $2,162 (50% win rate)
Related Theses
Early Iran peace deal
Covers 7 related markets
