What does this Israel-Hamas ceasefire prediction market resolve on?

The market resolves to “Yes” if either Israel or Hamas announces the ceasefire is cancelled, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the ceasefire is no longer in effect by the deadline. Otherwise, it resolves to “No.”

When does the Israel-Hamas ceasefire cancelled market close?

The market is based on whether the ceasefire is cancelled by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. If the qualifying event has not occurred by then, the market should resolve to “No.”

What events would count as the ceasefire being cancelled?

A direct cancellation announcement from Israel or Hamas would count. The market can also resolve “Yes” if credible reporting broadly confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, even without a formal joint announcement.

Where can I track Polymarket odds for the Israel-Hamas ceasefire?

You can follow this market on PolySpotter to monitor Polymarket odds, smart money activity, and alerts related to whether the Israel-Hamas ceasefire is cancelled by the June 30, 2026 deadline.

How much smart money is being tracked on this market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $1,130 in smart money activity on this market, with 1 smart money signal identified from a profitable serial cross-market trader.

Part of: Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?

This Polymarket market tracks whether Israel or Hamas will announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or whether credible reporting confirms the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. PolySpotter is tracking $1,130 in smart money exposure and 1 smart money signal on this Israel-Hamas ceasefire cancellation market.

On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,130.

Categories: Israel, Geopolitics, World, Middle East, Gaza

Notable Trades

Profitable serial cross-market trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader bought No on a thin geopolitics market, with the bet equal to about one-third of 24h volume.

This bettor has won 70% of 294 resolved bets and is up about $38K lifetime.
They have traded across 36 events, suggesting a repeatable thesis-driven style rather than a one-off bet.
The $1.1K No buy was large for this quiet market, equal to roughly 36% of the last 24 hours of volume.

$1,130 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%