Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,855.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Middle East, Lebanon, Israel x Iran, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

Profitable serial thesis trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 70% resolved win rate is taking a fresh No position on a plausible geopolitical market.

  • This bettor wins 70% of resolved bets and is up $39K across nearly $529K invested.
  • They have traded across 38 events and 48 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market thesis pattern.
  • Buying No at 43¢ implies they see the diplomatic meeting as meaningfully less likely than the market’s 58% Yes price.

$1,855 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Top Holders

  1. 0x2fad...f5c0 Yes, $7,498 (36% win rate)
  2. 0xb4f2...e5fa No, $5,497 (70% win rate)
  3. 0xf027...3f04 No, $3,760 (72% win rate)
  4. 0x68d3...82e1 Yes, $2,921 (77% win rate)
  5. 0x9e9a...5d99 Yes, $2,000
  6. 0x389a...397d No, $1,849 (29% win rate)
  7. 0x8daf...8c4a No, $1,844
  8. 0xd67b...5780 Yes, $1,500 (46% win rate)
  9. 0x4158...ce9f No, $1,316 (40% win rate)
  10. 0xbacd...ab35 No, $1,287 (48% win rate)

Related Theses

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Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?

25d$1,855 tracked1 signalIranIsraelMiddle EastLebanonIsrael x IranIran Ceasefire
Yes
54¢
No
47¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
65¢
47¢
29¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?

2h ago

$1,855 on No at 43¢

43¢47¢4¢

Related Theses