Part of: Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?

Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?

This prediction market asks whether Israeli military personnel, including the IDF or other official Israeli military units, will cross the Litani River in Lebanon before the May 31, 2026 deadline. PolySpotter is tracking $3,519 in smart money activity and 1 signal, including a recent alert from an 86% serial event trader. The market resolves “Yes” if a qualifying crossing occurs under the market rules, and “No” otherwise.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count. A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing. Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify. Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying crossing cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,519.

Categories: Israel, Hezbollah, Middle East, Geopolitics, Lebanon

Notable Trades

86% serial event trader

A highly proven serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes despite the market pulling back sharply.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades across 1,135 bets and is up about $57.9k lifetime.
  • They are a very active cross-market trader, with $1.17M deployed across 146 events and 232 markets.
  • They bought Yes at 65¢ on a market now around 50¢, suggesting a cheaper follow-in price than their entry.

$3,519 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Top Holders

  1. 0x682e...70bd Yes, $13,495 (66% win rate)
  2. 0xb8d3...0e0f No, $10,063 (74% win rate)
  3. 0xe738...df65 Yes, $3,500 (65% win rate)
  4. 0x2637...26e1 No, $2,106
  5. 0xb40e...7cc9 No, $1,845 (60% win rate)
  6. 0xc7d0...1f8a No, $1,824
  7. 0x645a...fd84 No, $1,426
  8. 0xe8c4...395d Yes, $1,417 (96% win rate)
  9. 0xa9f2...6c8e Yes, $1,400 (100% win rate)
  10. 0x695c...10a1 No, $1,213

Related Theses

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Hormuz disruptions continue past July

Covers 1 related market

GameStop won't acquire eBay

Covers 1 related market

Early Iran meeting expected

Covers 3 related markets

Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?

4hIsraeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?$3,519 tracked1 signalIsraelHezbollahMiddle EastGeopoliticsLebanon
Yes
90¢
No
11¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count. A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing. Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify. Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying crossing cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.

Price History — “Yes
93¢
63¢
32¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?

1d ago

$3,519 on Yes at 65¢

65¢90¢25¢

Related Theses