Part of: Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?
This prediction market asks whether Israeli military personnel, including the IDF or other official Israeli military units, will cross the Litani River in Lebanon before the May 31, 2026 deadline. PolySpotter is tracking $3,519 in smart money activity and 1 signal, including a recent alert from an 86% serial event trader. The market resolves “Yes” if a qualifying crossing occurs under the market rules, and “No” otherwise.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count. A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing. Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify. Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying crossing cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,519.
Categories: Israel, Hezbollah, Middle East, Geopolitics, Lebanon
Notable Trades
86% serial event trader
A highly proven serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes despite the market pulling back sharply.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades across 1,135 bets and is up about $57.9k lifetime.
- They are a very active cross-market trader, with $1.17M deployed across 146 events and 232 markets.
- They bought Yes at 65¢ on a market now around 50¢, suggesting a cheaper follow-in price than their entry.
$3,519 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Top Holders
- 0x682e...70bd — Yes, $13,495 (66% win rate)
- 0xb8d3...0e0f — No, $10,063 (74% win rate)
- 0xe738...df65 — Yes, $3,500 (65% win rate)
- 0x2637...26e1 — No, $2,106
- 0xb40e...7cc9 — No, $1,845 (60% win rate)
- 0xc7d0...1f8a — No, $1,824
- 0x645a...fd84 — No, $1,426
- 0xe8c4...395d — Yes, $1,417 (96% win rate)
- 0xa9f2...6c8e — Yes, $1,400 (100% win rate)
- 0x695c...10a1 — No, $1,213
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