Part of: Israeli forces enter Choukine by...?

Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7?

This prediction market asks whether Israeli military personnel will physically enter the municipality of Choukine in Lebanon for military purposes by June 7, 2026. The market excludes aerial or maritime operations, undercover operatives, and non-ground activity, and resolves based on whether troops are confirmed on the ground by the deadline. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,355 in smart money on this market, with a recent signal showing a repeat bettor backing No.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Choukine in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Choukine will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,355.

Categories: Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, Geopolitics, Hezbollah

Notable Trades

1-day repeat bettor backing NO

A 1-day-old wallet has repeatedly placed large flagged bets totaling $18.5k and is taking a fresh NO position on a thin geopolitical market near resolution.

  • This brand-new wallet has already made 7 flagged large bets totaling $18.5k.
  • The market is fairly thin, so a $1.4k NO buy is meaningful against $5.6k liquidity.
  • The bet is on a specific military-ground-operation outcome resolving within days, where informed positioning is plausible.

$1,355 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0xbc72...b99a Yes, $3,333
  2. 0x4da6...e999 Yes, $2,107
  3. 0x85a8...9281 No, $1,697
  4. 0xfd71...d70d No, $1,500 (63% win rate)
  5. 0x68d3...55b0 No, $1,264 (89% win rate)
  6. 0xecc5...5fde Yes, $727
  7. 0xe8c4...395d No, $559 (96% win rate)
  8. 0xa0db...56d5 No, $547 (74% win rate)
  9. 0x645a...fd84 No, $413
  10. 0x9238...b73e No, $380 (39% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 2 related markets

Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7?

3dIsraeli forces enter Choukine by...?$1,355 tracked1 signalMiddle EastIsraelLebanonGeopoliticsHezbollah
Yes
21¢
No
80¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Choukine in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Choukine will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.

Price History — “No
82¢
63¢
44¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7?

2h ago

$1,355 on No at 80¢

80¢80¢

Related Theses