Part of: Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?

Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Nabatieh in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Nabatieh will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,430.

Categories: Hezbollah, Lebanon, Middle East, Geopolitics, Israel

Notable Trades

87% winner buying NO

Despite a weak low-activity signal, this is worth surfacing because the wallet has an 87% resolved-bet win rate across 1,050 bets and is profitable lifetime.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved bets across 1,050 markets and is up $12,085 lifetime.
  • They bought No at 85¢ on a geopolitical market where informed views are plausible.
  • The position is already moving their way, with No now around 88¢ after entry.

$1,430 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

Top Holders

  1. 0xd83c...19dc No, $3,678 (87% win rate)
  2. 0x4da6...e999 Yes, $1,271
  3. 0x165e...f5aa No, $1,227 (76% win rate)
  4. 0x28aa...8f75 Yes, $1,046 (65% win rate)
  5. 0x725b...27e8 Yes, $1,000
  6. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $800 (47% win rate)
  7. 0xa0db...56d5 No, $653 (74% win rate)
  8. 0x4934...5951 Yes, $625
  9. 0xc63a...26a0 Yes, $608
  10. 0xf86f...256f Yes, $600 (43% win rate)

Related Theses

Bitcoin stays rangebound in May

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?

5dIsraeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?$1,430 tracked1 signalHezbollahLebanonMiddle EastGeopoliticsIsrael
Yes
13¢
No
87¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Nabatieh in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Nabatieh will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.

Price History — “No
89¢
66¢
43¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?

2h ago

$1,430 on No at 85¢

85¢87¢2¢

Related Theses