Part of: JD Vance out as VP by...?

JD Vance out as VP by December 31?

This prediction market asks whether JD Vance will cease to be Vice President of the United States at any point before December 31, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if he resigns, is removed, or is otherwise effectively out of office during the covered period, including if a resignation or removal is announced before the deadline. PolySpotter currently tracks $2,250 in smart money exposure and 1 smart money signal for this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance ceases to be Vice-President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vance's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,250.

Categories: Trump Cabinet, Politics, Trump

Notable Trades

Profitable serial cross-market trader

A highly active profitable cross-market trader is effectively buying the long-shot Yes side with a bet larger than recent daily volume.

  • This bettor is up $147k lifetime across 1,069 resolved bets.
  • They are effectively buying Yes at 10¢, a long-shot position against the current 90¢ No price.
  • The $2.25k trade is over 3x this market’s 24h volume, showing meaningful conviction in a quiet market.

$2,250 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 62%

Top Holders

  1. 0xeb22...808a Yes, $17,962 (35% win rate)
  2. 0x52c2...0556 No, $13,003 (0% win rate)
  3. 0x0dde...94c3 No, $6,000 (86% win rate)
  4. 0x4337...8882 No, $5,064 (75% win rate)
  5. 0xcd96...9ee4 Yes, $5,000
  6. 0x6ec8...99d2 Yes, $4,252
  7. 0xf9b7...60a4 No, $2,500 (62% win rate)
  8. 0xa429...368a No, $600
  9. 0x919d...60e1 No, $500 (84% win rate)
  10. 0x70ff...b65f Yes, $400

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JD Vance out as VP by December 31?

210dJD Vance out as VP by...?$2,250 tracked1 signalTrump CabinetPoliticsTrump
Yes
10¢
No
91¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance ceases to be Vice-President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vance's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
93¢
91¢
89¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

JD Vance out as VP by December 31?

1h ago

$2,250 on Yes at 10¢

10¢10¢

Related Theses