Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?

This prediction market tracks whether Kevin Warsh will be confirmed by the Senate as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 15, 2026. It resolves to Yes only if Warsh is officially confirmed by that deadline; a rejected or withdrawn nomination resolves the market to No immediately. Recent smart money activity shows a new wallet pressing No, with $1,693 in tracked smart money across 1 signal.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,693.

Categories: Trump, Fed, Politics

Notable Trades

New wallet pressing NO

A very new wallet has repeatedly made sizable bets on this market and is already up on a fresh $1.7k No position entered before the odds moved sharply in its favor.

  • A new wallet has been flagged 3 times already, with about $5.7k of bets and another $1.7k added here
  • This buy came at 60¢ and the market is now 70¢ No, so the bettor caught a fast 10-point move
  • The market dropped 32 points in a day, and this wallet is adding to the winning side rather than taking profits

$1,693 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0x3a8a...7699 — Yes, $18,374 (90% win rate)
  2. 0x7de7...a9c8 — No, $8,049
  3. 0x5fcf...03a0 — No, $7,465
  4. 0xb07f...3c41 — Yes, $5,111 (100% win rate)
  5. 0xcb50...8cba — No, $5,000
  6. 0x6302...7917 — Yes, $4,000
  7. 0x83e8...7b89 — No, $3,775 (55% win rate)
  8. 0x9f00...a14b — No, $3,643
  9. 0xcf19...6402 — Yes, $2,858 (56% win rate)
  10. 0x2525...b919 — Yes, $2,278 (55% win rate)

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?

29d$1,693 tracked1 signalTrumpFedPolitics
Yes
33¢
No
68¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No”
71¢
49¢
27¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?

3h ago

$1,693 on No at 60¢

60¢→68¢↑8¢
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair Prediction Market Odds | PolySpotter