Part of: LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised - Game 2 Winner
This Polymarket-style prediction market covers the Game 2 winner between Shopify Rebellion and Disguised in the LCS Regular Season, scheduled for May 16 at 7:00 PM ET. It resolves to the team that wins Game 2, with final resolution expected by May 17, 2026 at 04:00 UTC. PolySpotter is tracking $3,945 in smart money activity across 2 signals, including alerts from a profitable serial esports bettor and underdog buying activity.
This market refers to the LoL match between Shopify Rebellion and Disguised in the LCS Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 16 at 7:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Shopify Rebellion" if Shopify Rebellion win Game 2 against Disguised. This market will resolve to "Disguised" if Disguised win Game 2 against Shopify Rebellion. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
7 smart money signals detected, totaling $28,041.
Categories: Esports, league of legends, Games, Sports
Notable Trades
Profitable serial esports trader
A highly profitable serial esports trader flipped from Disguised into Shopify Rebellion and immediately caught a major price move to 100%.
- This bettor has won 72% of 765 resolved bets and is up $456k lifetime.
- They have traded 193 markets across 110 events, showing a deep repeat pattern in this niche.
- They flipped off Disguised and bought Shopify at 89¢ before the market moved to 100¢.
$3,406 on Shopify Rebellion | Wallet win rate: 72%
84% winner on esports surge
A highly profitable 84% win-rate esports bettor bought Shopify Rebellion at 85¢ alongside a major price move and volume spike.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $60K lifetime.
- They have a long cross-market track record: 34 events, 36 markets, and $80K traded.
- The buy came during a 15.5x volume spike and helped push Shopify Rebellion up 34 points.
$3,931 on Shopify Rebellion | Wallet win rate: 84%
Profitable serial esports trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought Shopify Rebellion at 85¢ before a sharp move to 100¢ amid a 15.5x volume spike.
- This bettor is up $403K lifetime across more than 1,600 resolved markets.
- They bought Shopify Rebellion at 85¢ before the price jumped to 100¢.
- The market saw a 15.5x volume spike and a 34-point move in the same direction.
$1,499 on Shopify Rebellion | Wallet win rate: 59%
Sharp 5-wallet esports push
High-conviction one-sided Shopify Rebellion flow from five wallets, including several profitable serial sports/esports traders, drove a major pre-event price move.
- Five wallets put $12.3K on Shopify Rebellion in the same direction, with the market up 14 points over the day.
- Several bettors have strong records, including one up $456K lifetime and another winning 81% of 139 resolved bets.
- This was a sharp pre-event volume surge, with trading running 21x above normal and a rapid move against Disguised.
$12,260 on Shopify Rebellion
80% bettor buying dip
Sharp-wallet override applies: an 80% winning bettor with positive P&L bought $3,000 of Disguised amid a major volume spike and fast price move.
- This bettor has won 80% of tracked bets and is up about $5.8k lifetime.
- They bought $3,000 of Disguised at 43¢ while market volume spiked 21x above normal.
- Entry at 43¢ gives roughly a 2.3x payout if Disguised wins Game 2.
$3,000 on Disguised | Wallet win rate: 80%
Profitable serial esports bettor
Profitable serial cross-market bettor sold Disguised, equivalent to buying Shopify Rebellion at 43¢, and the market has already moved toward that view.
- This bettor is up $453K lifetime across 764 resolved markets.
- They have traded 192 markets across 110 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- They effectively bought Shopify Rebellion at 43¢, and the market has already moved to 53¢.
$1,445 on Shopify Rebellion | Wallet win rate: 72%
80% winner buying underdog
Surface due to sharp-wallet override: this bettor has an 80% record over 10 resolved bets with positive P&L and is taking a meaningful Disguised position.
- This bettor has won 80% of their resolved bets and is up $7.15K lifetime.
- They bought $2.5K of Disguised at 64¢, showing conviction above the current 47¢ market price.
- Their past wins came around 64¢ average odds, suggesting they have beaten similar prices before.
$2,500 on Disguised | Wallet win rate: 80%
Top Holders
- 0xf201...527e — Shopify Rebellion, $9,827 (72% win rate)
- 0x507e...beae — Shopify Rebellion, $8,943 (50% win rate)
- 0x8c0b...7aa5 — Shopify Rebellion, $7,965 (56% win rate)
- 0x26f8...3452 — Disguised, $7,600 (54% win rate)
- 0xd458...1c90 — Disguised, $6,982 (80% win rate)
- 0xafd4...7e61 — Disguised, $5,500 (63% win rate)
- 0xcf60...a6f5 — Disguised, $4,999 (68% win rate)
- 0xe361...ae44 — Shopify Rebellion, $3,616 (51% win rate)
- 0x913c...39b3 — Disguised, $3,525 (63% win rate)
- 0x8756...3c83 — Disguised, $3,189
Related Theses
T1 will sweep Gen.G
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Nongshim wins Game 2
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