Madrid Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Corentin Moutet
This Polymarket tracks the Madrid Open match between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Corentin Moutet, scheduled for April 25, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. The market resolves to the player who advances, with cancellation protection if the match is not played or is delayed beyond seven days. PolySpotter currently tracks $9,389 in smart money activity on this market, offering an additional signal alongside the live odds.
This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Corentin Moutet in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 25, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Corentin Moutet. This market will resolve to 'Corentin Moutet' if Corentin Moutet advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $49,139.
Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games
Notable Trades
Madrid Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Corentin Moutet
LLM evaluation failed — kept for manual review.
- LLM evaluation failed
$9,389 | Wallet win rate: 88%
New sharp wallet fading surge
A profitable new wallet with an 88% win rate made a sizable sell that converts to buying Corentin Moutet at 52¢, aligning with a 3-wallet one-sided cluster despite the market moving sharply against that side.
- This 22-day-old wallet wins 88% of resolved bets and is already up $1.8k.
- The trade effectively buys Corentin Moutet at 52¢, and 3 wallets put $8.8k on the same side.
- They faded a 25-point price surge in a high-volume tennis market, suggesting a contrarian view rather than random whale flow.
$5,675 on Corentin Moutet | Wallet win rate: 88%
5-wallet sports pile-in
Five wallets piled into Corentin Moutet for $17.3k during a 21.8x volume spike, including one very strong long-term winner with $6.4M profit, making this coordinated sports flow worth surfacing despite mixed wallet quality.
- Five wallets all backed Corentin Moutet within minutes for $17.3k total.
- One of the buyers has won 73% of 3,502 resolved bets and is up $6.4M lifetime.
- The market saw a 21.8x volume spike, and these buys came around 53¢ to 61¢.
$17,326 on Corentin Moutet
Hot new wallet buys early
A repeat new wallet with an early 88% hit rate made a sizable fresh bet on Daniel Merida Aguilar before a sharp move from 50-55¢ to 68¢, suggesting strong directional conviction worth tracking.
- This 22-day-old wallet has already been flagged 22 times and is up $1.8k with an 88% win rate.
- They bought nearly $7.5k of Daniel Merida Aguilar at 50-55¢ before the market moved to 68¢.
- The market saw a 21.8x volume spike, and this bettor entered before the big price jump.
$7,480 on Daniel Merida Aguilar | Wallet win rate: 88%
New wallet in 4-wallet cluster
A very new wallet with repeated large betting activity joined a 4-wallet coordinated buy cluster on Corentin Moutet during a major pre-match volume spike, suggesting conviction worth monitoring despite limited track record.
- An 8-day-old wallet has already been flagged 24 times with over $30.7k in notable bets
- Four wallets all bought Corentin Moutet together for $11.1k total, pointing to shared conviction
- This came during a 68.9x volume spike, even as the price has since moved from 61¢ down to 46¢
$1,294 on Corentin Moutet | Wallet win rate: 0%
3-wallet tennis surge
Three wallets piled into Daniel Merida Aguilar during a sharp 25-point move, including one repeat new wallet and one bettor with an 88% win rate, making this coordinated flow worth watching despite the market already repricing higher.
- Three wallets bought Daniel Merida Aguilar in the same burst for nearly $8k as the price jumped from 55¢ to 68¢
- One of the buyers wins 88% of resolved bets and is up $1.8k, which gives this cluster more signal than random crowd flow
- A repeat new wallet just 2 days old has already triggered 17 large-bet alerts totaling $28k, suggesting aggressive conviction
$7,976 on Daniel Merida Aguilar
Top Holders
- 0xfe78...0319 — Daniel Merida Aguilar, $24,786 (73% win rate)
- 0x6fc4...c89d — Daniel Merida Aguilar, $19,809 (100% win rate)
- 0xcd36...a8ac — Corentin Moutet, $14,880 (54% win rate)
- 0xba8c...e77d — Daniel Merida Aguilar, $11,000 (91% win rate)
- 0xa16a...33a1 — Daniel Merida Aguilar, $10,721 (99% win rate)
- 0xf4a5...4dd9 — Corentin Moutet, $7,537 (80% win rate)
- 0x5268...135d — Daniel Merida Aguilar, $6,857 (4% win rate)
- 0xc965...c8ec — Corentin Moutet, $6,426 (100% win rate)
- 0x84ad...bfb7 — Daniel Merida Aguilar, $6,066 (58% win rate)
- 0xdcbf...d37f — Corentin Moutet, $6,037 (42% win rate)
