Part of: Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

8 smart money signals detected, totaling $57,549.

Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games

Notable Trades

$6.5M profit sharp bettor

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 72% win rate and $6.5M profit is taking the underdog at 31¢ in a liquid tennis market, making this worth surfacing despite only one signal.

  • This bettor has won 72% of 3,543 resolved trades and is up $6.5M lifetime.
  • They regularly trade across many related markets at scale: 1,286 markets across 1,069 events.
  • Buying Daniel Merida Aguilar at 31¢ is a clear underdog position, implying they see the true odds meaningfully above the market.

$2,181 on Daniel Merida Aguilar | Wallet win rate: 67%

76% win-rate sports bettor

A proven high-volume sports bettor with a 76% win rate and $181k profit is backing Tsitsipas, making this a credible copy-trade despite the otherwise routine market conditions.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades across 729 bets and is up $181k lifetime.
  • They have traded 590 markets across 571 events, which points to a repeatable process rather than a one-off punt.
  • They bought Tsitsipas at 70¢, a modest premium to the current 68-69¢ market, showing straightforward conviction.

$7,927 on Stefanos Tsitsipas | Wallet win rate: 81%

97% win-rate bettor

A proven sharp bettor with a 97% win rate and nearly $100k in profit is buying Tsitsipas at 69¢, making this worth surfacing despite the modest ticket size.

  • This bettor wins 97% of their trades and is up about $99k across 71 resolved markets.
  • They bought Stefanos Tsitsipas at 69¢, a strong signal from a wallet with an unusually strong track record.
  • The market is liquid and active, so this looks more like a sharp opinion than a random punt in a thin market.

$1,655 on Stefanos Tsitsipas | Wallet win rate: 56%

4-wallet Tsitsipas pile-in

Four wallets piled into Tsitsipas within minutes for $22.7k during a 277x volume spike, led by a high-volume profitable bettor, making this coordinated sports flow worth watching despite mixed wallet quality.

  • Four wallets bought Tsitsipas within 3 minutes for $22.7k total, a strong one-sided push on the same outcome.
  • One of the wallets has 539 resolved bets and is up $311.9k lifetime, adding some credibility to the move.
  • The market saw a 277x volume spike, and they got in at 66-67¢ before price moved to 68¢.

$22,708 on Stefanos Tsitsipas

92% win-rate underdog bet

A very sharp wallet with a 92% win rate bought the underdog at 35¢ during an extreme pre-match volume spike, making this a strong copy-trade candidate.

  • This bettor wins 92% of their trades and is up about $82k across 26 resolved markets.
  • They bought Daniel Merida Aguilar at 35¢, a clear underdog price that implies a strong disagreement with the market.
  • The market saw a 129.7x volume spike before the match, suggesting fast money is moving into this setup.

$4,814 on Daniel Merida Aguilar | Wallet win rate: 89%

Repeat new-wallet whale

A very new wallet has already made multiple large bets and just put another $11.4k into a mainstream tennis market, suggesting real conviction even though the track record is still tiny.

  • This wallet is less than 2 days old and has already triggered 3 large-bet alerts totaling $24.6k
  • It just bought $11.4k of Tsitsipas at 65¢, a meaningful size even in a fairly liquid $52k 24h market
  • Early results are strong at 2 wins from 2 resolved bets and about $2.1k profit, though the sample is still very small

$11,427 on Stefanos Tsitsipas | Wallet win rate: 94%

6-wallet funded cluster

A newly created wallet from a 6-wallet linked cluster is taking the Tsitsipas side via a sell of Daniel Merida Aguilar, suggesting coordinated conviction from one actor rather than a random single bet.

  • Six wallets funded by the same address have shown up in these alerts, which points to coordinated conviction from one bettor.
  • This wallet is new and still put $2,040 to work, a meaningful size for a fresh account with no resolved history.
  • The trade was a sell of Daniel Merida Aguilar at 34¢, which is equivalent to buying Tsitsipas at 66¢.

$2,040 on Stefanos Tsitsipas

86% win-rate sports bettor

A proven high-win-rate sports trader with broad cross-market activity just put nearly $4.8k on Tsitsipas at 65¢, making this a credible copy-trade despite the market being fairly liquid.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $22.7k on $122.5k invested
  • They have bet across 53 events and 60 markets, which suggests a repeatable process rather than a one-off punt
  • Bought Tsitsipas at 65¢ with nearly $4.8k, implying they still see value even after the recent move higher

$4,797 on Stefanos Tsitsipas | Wallet win rate: 89%

Top Holders

  1. 0x2b03...2c36 Outcome 71900323, $13,755 (89% win rate)
  2. 0x4698...d7a5 Outcome 71900323, $2,773 (100% win rate)
  3. 0x33c9...6f9a Outcome 71900323, $2,451 (77% win rate)
  4. 0xa164...7d86 Outcome 71900323, $2,136
  5. 0x4b49...0397 Outcome 71900323, $2,000 (72% win rate)
  6. 0xc463...9a2f Outcome 71900323, $2,000 (54% win rate)
  7. 0x0c87...98b1 Outcome 71900323, $1,925
  8. 0xd4aa...d40c Outcome 71900323, $1,869
  9. 0x93bc...8ca3 Outcome 71900323, $1,860 (79% win rate)
  10. 0x48de...95ba Outcome 71900323, $1,531 (79% win rate)

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Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

ResolvedMadrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniel Merida Aguilar$57,549 tracked8 signalsTennisSportsGames

This market refers to the tennis match between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Stefanos Tsitsipas' if Stefanos Tsitsipas advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Stefanos Tsitsipas. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

44d ago

$2,181 on Daniel Merida Aguilar at 31¢

Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

45d ago

$7,927 on Stefanos Tsitsipas at 70¢

Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

45d ago

$1,655 on Stefanos Tsitsipas at 69¢

Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

45d ago

$22,708 on Stefanos Tsitsipas at 66¢

Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

45d ago

$4,814 on Daniel Merida Aguilar at 35¢

Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

45d ago

$11,427 on Stefanos Tsitsipas at 65¢

Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

45d ago

$2,040 on Stefanos Tsitsipas at 66¢

Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

45d ago

$4,797 on Stefanos Tsitsipas at 65¢

Related Theses