Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

This market refers to the tennis match between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Stefanos Tsitsipas' if Stefanos Tsitsipas advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Stefanos Tsitsipas. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $23,078.

Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games

Notable Trades

92% win-rate underdog bet

A very sharp wallet with a 92% win rate bought the underdog at 35¢ during an extreme pre-match volume spike, making this a strong copy-trade candidate.

This bettor wins 92% of their trades and is up about $82k across 26 resolved markets.
They bought Daniel Merida Aguilar at 35¢, a clear underdog price that implies a strong disagreement with the market.
The market saw a 129.7x volume spike before the match, suggesting fast money is moving into this setup.

$4,814 on Daniel Merida Aguilar | Wallet win rate: 92%

Repeat new-wallet whale

A very new wallet has already made multiple large bets and just put another $11.4k into a mainstream tennis market, suggesting real conviction even though the track record is still tiny.

This wallet is less than 2 days old and has already triggered 3 large-bet alerts totaling $24.6k
It just bought $11.4k of Tsitsipas at 65¢, a meaningful size even in a fairly liquid $52k 24h market
Early results are strong at 2 wins from 2 resolved bets and about $2.1k profit, though the sample is still very small

$11,427 on Stefanos Tsitsipas | Wallet win rate: 100%

6-wallet funded cluster

A newly created wallet from a 6-wallet linked cluster is taking the Tsitsipas side via a sell of Daniel Merida Aguilar, suggesting coordinated conviction from one actor rather than a random single bet.

Six wallets funded by the same address have shown up in these alerts, which points to coordinated conviction from one bettor.
This wallet is new and still put $2,040 to work, a meaningful size for a fresh account with no resolved history.
The trade was a sell of Daniel Merida Aguilar at 34¢, which is equivalent to buying Tsitsipas at 66¢.

$2,040 on Stefanos Tsitsipas

86% win-rate sports bettor

A proven high-win-rate sports trader with broad cross-market activity just put nearly $4.8k on Tsitsipas at 65¢, making this a credible copy-trade despite the market being fairly liquid.

This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $22.7k on $122.5k invested
They have bet across 53 events and 60 markets, which suggests a repeatable process rather than a one-off punt
Bought Tsitsipas at 65¢ with nearly $4.8k, implying they still see value even after the recent move higher

$4,797 on Stefanos Tsitsipas | Wallet win rate: 86%