What does the 2026 major meteor strike market predict?

It predicts whether a natural meteoroid will explode in Earth’s atmosphere with total impact energy of at least 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent during 2026.

When does the meteor strike prediction market resolve?

The market resolves after the end of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, based on the market’s stated resolution criteria.

What counts as a major meteor event for this market?

The object must be a natural meteoroid, also called a bolide when it produces a bright atmospheric explosion, and the event must meet or exceed the 10-kiloton energy threshold.

Do artificial objects or spacecraft reentries qualify?

No. Artificial objects, rocket bodies, satellites, and reentry vehicles do not qualify for a Yes resolution.

What source determines the market outcome?

The primary resolution source is NASA’s JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository, as specified in the market rules.

Part of: Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

This prediction market asks whether a natural meteoroid, or bolide, will explode in Earth’s atmosphere with energy of at least 10 kilotons of TNT during 2026. It resolves Yes if the event occurs between January 1 and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, using NASA’s JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository as the primary source. Check the live Yes/No odds and smart-money activity for the latest market view.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,023.

Categories: Climate & Science, SpaceX, Space, astroid, Weather, Science, nasa, Natural Disaster

Notable Trades

Linked sharp bettors scaling into No

Three linked wallets, including highly profitable and proven bettors, are adding a concentrated No position in a relatively thin market.

Three wallets tied to two funders bought $6,489 of No, a sizable position against the market’s $11,898 liquidity.
One bettor has won 75% of 1,081 resolved trades with $3.56 million in profit, while another has an 83% win rate across 1,004 trades.
The No position is being added around 78–87¢ and has moved to 88%, though the high current price limits the remaining upside.

$6,489 on No

Profitable serial bettor buys No

A highly experienced bettor with 1,081 resolved positions and substantial profits made a sizable No bet in a thin, wide-spread market.

This bettor wins 75% of 1,081 resolved trades and is up $3.56 million lifetime.
They placed a $1,534 No bet at 78¢ in a thin market with a 10-point bid-ask spread.
The trader has participated across 90 events and 132 markets, indicating broad and sustained experience.

$1,534 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%