What is the Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31 market?

It is a prediction market on whether Bitcoin’s BTC/USDT price on Binance will close higher or lower at 12:00 PM ET on May 31, 2026 compared with the 12:00 PM ET close on May 30, 2026.

How does this Bitcoin prediction market resolve?

The market resolves to “Up” if the final close price of the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle at noon ET on May 31 is higher than the matching noon ET candle on May 30. It resolves to “Down” if the May 31 close is lower.

What happens if the two Bitcoin close prices are exactly the same?

The market rules indicate that resolution depends on the exact final close prices for the two specified Binance candles. If they are exactly equal, traders should refer to the full Polymarket rule text for the stated tie-resolution procedure.

When does the Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31 market resolve?

The listed resolution time is May 31, 2026 at 16:00 UTC, which corresponds to 12:00 PM ET, using the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at that time.

What smart money activity is tracked for this market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $1,782 in smart money exposure and 1 smart money signal, including activity from a profitable serial trader.

Part of: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31?

Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31?

This Polymarket asks whether Bitcoin’s BTC/USDT close on Binance at 12:00 PM ET on May 31, 2026 will be higher or lower than the 12:00 PM ET close on May 30, 2026. It resolves “Up” if the May 31 close is higher, “Down” if it is lower, with final settlement based on the specified Binance 1-minute candles. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,782 in smart money and 1 signal for this Bitcoin daily direction market.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 30 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 31 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 30 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 31 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,288.

Categories: Crypto, Crypto Prices, Recurring, Bitcoin, Up or Down, Today 🚀, Daily, Daily-Close

Notable Trades

Profitable serial timer buys Down

A profitable serial near-resolution crypto trader put $6.3k on Down about 33 minutes before settlement, backed by a long history of timed bets and positive P&L.

This bettor is up $291k lifetime and regularly bets close to resolution.
They have made 115 near-resolution bets across 36 markets, suggesting a repeat timing edge.
They put $6.3k on Down at an average 88¢ with the market minutes from settlement.

$6,307 on Down | Wallet win rate: 60%

Profitable serial timer

Profitable serial near-resolution trader bought $4.2k of Down roughly 46 minutes before BTC market resolution, backed by a long history of timed bets and positive P&L.

This bettor is up $291,635 lifetime and has made 113 near-resolution bets across 36 markets.
They bought $4.2k of Down at 89–90¢ about 46 minutes before resolution.
The market has already moved hard toward Down, and this trade adds to that late momentum.

$4,198 on Down | Wallet win rate: 60%

Profitable serial trader

Profitable high-volume trader bought Down after a sharp move, combining a strong cross-market history with fresh price momentum.

This bettor is up $291k lifetime across more than $46M in trades.
They have traded 321 related markets across 191 events, showing a long-running pattern in these short-term markets.
Bought Down at 89¢ after Down moved up 22 points, backing the current momentum before resolution.

$1,782 on Down | Wallet win rate: 60%