Part of: US Open ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

Michelsen vs. Aguilar: Match O/U 38.5

This Polymarket tennis market covers the total number of games in the Alex Michelsen vs. Daniel Merida Aguilar US Open ATP match, scheduled for September 4, 2026. The market resolves Over if at least 39 games are completed and Under if 38 or fewer games are played; it remains open if the match is postponed or suspended until completion. Smart money tracking shows $2,300 and one recent signal favoring the Over.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,300.

Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games

Notable Trades

Sharp bettor scaling into Over

A highly profitable serial trader with an 80% win rate is adding $2,300 to an Over position in an exceptionally quiet tennis market.

  • This bettor has won 80% of 363 resolved trades and is up $103,223.
  • The $2,300 purchase adds to an existing $4,341 Over position, signaling increased conviction.
  • The bet is more than 117 times the market’s 24-hour volume, despite a near-even 52% Over price.

$2,300 on Over | Wallet win rate: 80%

Top Holders

  1. 0xd4c3...60d9 Outcome 22891646, $4,341 (80% win rate)
  2. 0xe8c4...395d Outcome 22891646, $342 (94% win rate)
  3. 0xa965...7f73 Outcome 22891646, $125
  4. 0x6b1d...a01a Outcome 22891646, $115
  5. 0xc774...f218 Outcome 22891646, $71
  6. 0xf9b3...5e30 Outcome 22891646, $47
  7. 0x968c...2202 Outcome 22891646, $10
  8. 0x655e...45f8 Outcome 22891646, $9
  9. 0x03dd...49c8 Outcome 22891646, $8
  10. 0x1cae...d01c Outcome 22891646, $6

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Michelsen vs. Aguilar: Match O/U 38.5

ResolvedUS Open ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida Aguilar$2,300 tracked1 signalTennisSportsGames

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Michelsen and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed equals or exceeds 39. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks, including any Champions/Super tiebreak, count as one (1) game. If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution. If the match is permanently abandoned before completion, or if the match has not been completed by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered determined if it would have been guaranteed had the match been played to completion using the minimum number of additional games required. For example, for a line of 21.5, if play stops at 6-3, 5-6, completing the match would have required at least 2 additional games, resulting in at least 22 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be official Grand Slam statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “Over
53¢
51¢
48¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Michelsen vs. Aguilar: Match O/U 38.5

7d ago

$2,300 on Over at 53¢

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