Part of: National Bank Open: Diana Shnaider vs Iga Swiatek
National Bank Open: Diana Shnaider vs Iga Swiatek
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $205,599.
Categories: Sports, Tennis, Games
Notable Trades
Proven serial bettor adds to Swiatek
A proven 79% bettor with a substantial edge is adding to an Iga Swiatek position while showing broad serial cross-market activity.
- This bettor has won 79% of 255 resolved trades and is up $92,262 lifetime.
- They are adding $4,474 to an existing Iga Swiatek position at 83¢, despite the market now pricing her at 80%.
- The wallet has traded 69 events for $179,617, suggesting a repeatable market-selection process rather than a one-off bet.
$4,474 on Iga Swiatek | Wallet win rate: 79%
Sharp bettor backs Swiatek
A highly experienced bettor with 2,423 resolved trades and an 18-point edge bought $6,818 of Iga Swiatek at 73%, making this a credible sharp position.
- This bettor wins 81% of 2,423 resolved trades and is up $5.76 million.
- They placed a $6,818 fresh bet on Iga Swiatek at 73%, below the current 80% price.
- The wallet has traded across 686 markets and nearly $8 million, providing unusually strong evidence of repeatable skill.
$6,818 on Iga Swiatek | Wallet win rate: 81%
Four-wallet Swiatek cluster
Four linked wallets have built a coordinated Swiatek position, though the primary wallet is adding to an existing bet and has only a limited track record.
- Four wallets sharing a funder have committed $3,149 toward Iga Swiatek.
- This wallet is up $6,021 with two wins from two resolved bets, though the sample is small.
- The trade adds to an existing Swiatek position at 73¢, close to the market’s 72% implied probability.
$3,149 on Iga Swiatek | Wallet win rate: 90%
Whale backs Swiatek heavily
A single wallet made a concentrated $191,000 directional bet against Shnaider, effectively backing Swiatek, while triggering an extreme pre-event volume spike.
- This wallet sold $191,000 of Shnaider at 26–29%, equivalent to buying Iga Swiatek around 74%.
- The trades produced a 5,780× spike versus the detected baseline and represented over 2,000% of recent activity.
- The wallet is up $2.1 million lifetime, though its 48% win rate makes this a size-and-timing signal rather than a proven sharp-bettor play.
$191,159 on Iga Swiatek | Wallet win rate: 46%
Top Holders
- 0x2073...385b — Outcome 34691510, $35,014 (91% win rate)
- 0x0353...c2ff — Outcome 34691510, $35,000 (82% win rate)
- 0x2a69...d2f7 — Outcome 34691510, $30,145 (72% win rate)
- 0x9f15...bdb3 — Outcome 34691510, $15,595 (75% win rate)
- 0xe85d...ad4b — Outcome 34691510, $5,613 (58% win rate)
- 0xda1e...0a02 — Outcome 34691510, $4,545 (100% win rate)
- 0xe98c...8792 — Outcome 34691510, $2,931 (97% win rate)
- 0x4a3f...4333 — Outcome 34691510, $2,692 (97% win rate)
- 0x9c76...c926 — Outcome 34691510, $2,500 (91% win rate)
- 0x01c7...e995 — Outcome 34691510, $2,381 (61% win rate)
Related Theses
Team Liquid beats Spirit
Covers 3 related markets
