Part of: UFC Fight Night: Diego Ferreira vs. Billy Quarantillo (Lightweight, Main Card)

O/U 2.5 Rounds

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,197.

Notable Trades

Proven sharp scaling into Under

A proven sharp bettor with an 83% win rate and substantial positive edge is adding $1,682 to an existing Under position.

This bettor wins 83% of 92 resolved trades and is up $25,136 lifetime.
They are adding $1,682 to an existing Under position, signaling continued conviction.
The 58¢ entry implies the bettor sees Under as meaningfully undervalued despite the market pricing it near 57%.

$1,682 on Under | Wallet win rate: 83%

Profitable serial trader buys Over

A highly experienced profitable serial trader is making a meaningful contrarian bet at 40% in a relatively thin UFC market.

This bettor has won 64% of 5,422 resolved trades and is up $3.05 million lifetime.
They placed a $1,515 Over bet at 40% in a market with only $3,787 of 24-hour volume.
The 40¢ entry implies the trader sees meaningful value in the fight lasting beyond 2.5 rounds despite Under being favored at 60%.

$1,515 on Over | Wallet win rate: 65%

Top Holders

0xc700...31a1 — Outcome 81888999, $4,152 (83% win rate)
0xfb07...e2cc — Outcome 81888999, $2,624
0xc387...5a97 — Outcome 81888999, $1,067 (83% win rate)
0x0972...9d1e — Outcome 81888999, $771 (98% win rate)
0x969e...b834 — Outcome 81888999, $667
0xd161...4cc1 — Outcome 81888999, $435 (71% win rate)
0x17b8...d5d1 — Outcome 81888999, $295 (73% win rate)
0x5659...7a6b — Outcome 81888999, $148
0x3776...e17a — Outcome 81888999, $50
0x066f...b576 — Outcome 81888999, $41

Related Theses

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Ghana keeps England low-scoring

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South Africa keeps it low-scoring

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England advances in low scorer

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South Africa covers low-scoring match

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Haiti covers in high-scoring match

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O/U 2.5 Rounds

ResolvedUFC Fight Night: Diego Ferreira vs. Billy Quarantillo (Lightweight, Main Card)$3,197 tracked2 signalsGamesSportsUFC

Each market will resolve to "Over" if the fight between Diego Ferreira and Billy Quarantillo at UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld, scheduled for August 8, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold. Each market will resolve to "Under" if the fight does not last beyond the listed round threshold. For example: "Over 2.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 3. "Under 2.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 3. If the fight ends exactly at the threshold, it will resolve "50-50." If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond August 22, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Price History — “Under”

65¢

57¢

49¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction