UFC Fight Night: Diego Ferreira vs. Billy Quarantillo (Lightweight, Main Card)
7 signals across 3 markets · $100,778 tracked · resolves Aug 9, 2026
See live prediction-market odds for UFC Fight Night: Diego Ferreira vs. Billy Quarantillo, including the fight winner and whether it goes Over or Under 2.5 rounds. PolySpotter is tracking $1,515 in smart-money activity, including a profitable serial trader buying the Over.
Markets (3)
Top trades across all markets
- New-wallet cluster backing Billy
Four wallets deployed $25,000 on Billy Quarantillo in a thin market, led by a three-day-old repeat bettor with $45,000 reported profit, though the position is high risk after Billy fell from roughly 39% to 20%.
$25,047Score: 7.3 - Profitable bettor doubles down on No
A proven bettor with an 81% win rate and $31,733 profit added $2,686 to an already large No position in a thin, wide-spread market.
$2,686Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 6.8 - Elite bettor backs Diego Ferreira
An exceptionally profitable bettor with a 99% win rate and $16.8M lifetime profit made a concentrated $3,100 wager on Diego Ferreira in a relatively thin market.
$3,100Wallet win rate: 99%Score: 5.6 - Serial sharp adding to Diego
A highly profitable, serial cross-market bettor added $2,000 to Diego Ferreira at 80¢ and the outcome has since risen to 97%, though the existing position means this was an add rather than a fresh entry.
$2,000Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 5.5 - Profitable serial trader buys Over
A highly experienced profitable serial trader is making a meaningful contrarian bet at 40% in a relatively thin UFC market.
$1,515Wallet win rate: 65%Score: 3.5 - Whale adds to Ferreira position
A large existing position was increased by $64.7K amid an extreme pre-event volume spike, making this a notable directional sports bet despite the wallet's mediocre 51% win rate.
$64,748Wallet win rate: 49%Score: 3.5 - Proven sharp scaling into Under
A proven sharp bettor with an 83% win rate and substantial positive edge is adding $1,682 to an existing Under position.
$1,682Wallet win rate: 83%Score: 3.1
Top wallets in this event
- 0x3dfb15…abaf$64,748 · 1 market · 1 alert · 49% wins
- 0xc3c3b3…eec8$3,100 · 1 market · 1 alert · 99% wins
- 0x17b8dd…d5d1$2,686 · 1 market · 1 alert · 73% wins
- 0xeb6922…cfd1$2,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 86% wins
- 0xc7001b…31a1$1,682 · 1 market · 1 alert · 83% wins
- 0x224a89…a3d5$1,515 · 1 market · 1 alert · 65% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for Ferreira vs. Quarantillo?
The event hub tracks prediction-market odds for Diego Ferreira to win, Billy Quarantillo to win, and the Over/Under 2.5 rounds market. Check the live market prices on PolySpotter for the latest probabilities.
What is smart money betting on in this UFC fight?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,515 in smart-money activity and one signal so far. The latest alert shows a profitable serial trader buying Over 2.5 rounds.
When will the Ferreira vs. Quarantillo prediction market resolve?
The market is expected to resolve after UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld, scheduled for August 8, 2026, with resolution by August 9, 2026. A draw, No Contest, cancellation, or qualifying postponement may resolve the market 50-50.
What outcomes are traded for Ferreira vs. Quarantillo?
The event covers the official fight winner—Diego Ferreira or Billy Quarantillo—as well as whether the bout lasts Over or Under 2.5 rounds.