Part of: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $11,875.

Categories: Trump, putin, Ukraine Peace Deal, Geopolitics, Trump-Zelenskyy, Ukraine

Notable Trades

Sharp-led YES cluster

Three wallets are buying the same longshot Yes side, including one bettor with an 86% resolved-bet record and over $1.2M in profit.

  • A bettor who has won 86% of resolved bets and is up $1.2M joined this Yes move.
  • Three wallets bought the same side within minutes for nearly $9.9K total.
  • Average entry near 6¢ gives a large payoff if the market reprices toward ceasefire odds.

$9,875 on Yes

New linked wallet buying YES

A very new but already profitable linked wallet put $2k on the low-probability Yes side of a near-term Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market.

  • This 4-day-old wallet is already up $1.9k and just put $2k on a 6¢ longshot.
  • The wallet is linked to another funded account flagged in prior runs, suggesting repeat positioning.
  • Entry at 6¢ implies about a 16x payout if a ceasefire is announced by May 31.

$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 40%

Top Holders

  1. 0x4662...bdf6 Outcome 50296805, $26,744,228
  2. 0x79c5...e7da Outcome 50296805, $10,267,124
  3. 0xe88a...94c5 Outcome 50296805, $4,400,000
  4. 0xe698...e90f Outcome 50296805, $3,770,098
  5. 0x455e...4ee9 Outcome 50296805, $2,222,000
  6. 0x3748...ef32 Outcome 50296805, $2,004,000
  7. 0x3aa5...bb28 Outcome 50296805, $1,869,350
  8. 0x7f78...c406 Outcome 50296805, $1,310,000
  9. 0x9c22...c0bf Outcome 50296805, $1,100,000
  10. 0xbaed...fd99 Outcome 50296805, $1,097,000

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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

ResolvedRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?$11,875 tracked2 signalsTrumpputinUkraine Peace DealGeopoliticsTrump-ZelenskyyUkraine

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Notable Trades

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

43d ago

$9,875 on Yes at 6¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

45d ago

$2,000 on Yes at 6¢

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