Part of: SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?
SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?
This Polymarket tracks whether the U.S. Supreme Court will effectively bar counting mail ballots received after Election Day, tied to the Watson v. Republican National Committee case. Traders are pricing the odds of a major election-law ruling that could affect how late-arriving ballots are treated. The market is set to resolve by August 1, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,031.
Categories: Politics, Watson v. Republican National Committe, Supreme Court , vote counting, Courts, Elections
Notable Trades
SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?
A 4-wallet linked cluster with a strong historical hit rate is buying Yes in a very quiet SCOTUS market, and this single trade was larger than the market’s full 24-hour volume.
- This wallet wins 84% of resolved bets across 354 markets, which is a strong track record to watch.
- Four wallets funded by the same source have been flagged together here, pointing to coordinated conviction.
- This $3.0k buy was 164% of the market’s entire 24-hour volume, so the bet stands out in a thin market.
$3,031 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
Top Holders
- 0xdc8d...84bc — Yes, $5,000 (87% win rate)
- 0x7e31...454d — No, $3,783 (72% win rate)
- 0xc8e3...6fb0 — No, $1,289 (53% win rate)
- 0x5460...c7b5 — No, $1,000
- 0xfdfc...288c — Yes, $800
- 0x7e35...1a6c — Yes, $746
- 0x87b7...f533 — No, $600
- 0x45cc...6400 — No, $324
- 0xdf81...697d — Yes, $250 (47% win rate)
- 0x04dc...2387 — No, $148 (45% win rate)