Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs Jodar
This market refers to the tennis match between Joao Fonseca and Rafael Jodar in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 26, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Fonseca” if Joao Fonseca wins the first set. It will resolve to “Jodar” if Rafael Jodar wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $10,965.
Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games
Notable Trades
96% win-rate sports bettor
Despite a low composite score, this is worth surfacing because a bettor with a 96% win rate made a sizable buy during a sharp price spike in a thin sports market.
- This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades and is up $42.8k on about $100.8k invested
- They put $1.7k into Fonseca during an 18.5-point move in under 4 minutes in a market with only $1.5k liquidity
- The market is still around 56¢ now, far below their 89¢ entry, so the signal is the bettor's track record more than the current price action
$1,660 on Fonseca | Wallet win rate: 97%
96% win-rate tennis bettor
A wallet with a 96% win rate made a concentrated $3.3k bet on a thin tennis first-set market and appears to have driven a sharp price move, making it worth watching despite the mixed entry prices.
- This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades and is up $42.8k on about $100.8k invested
- They put $3.3k into a thin market with only $2.3k liquidity, helping push Fonseca up about 25 points
- Most of the position was added around 64¢, which still sits above the current 56¢ market price
$3,308 on Fonseca | Wallet win rate: 97%
96% win-rate bettor
A bettor with an exceptional 96% win rate and strong realized edge made a meaningful fresh buy in a relatively thin tennis market, making this worth watching despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 96% of their trades and is up $42.8k across 28 resolved bets
- They put $1.6k into a market with only about $7.0k of 24-hour volume, showing real conviction
- They bought Fonseca at 64¢, well above the current 45¢ market price, so this is a sharp bettor worth tracking rather than chasing higher
$1,648 on Fonseca | Wallet win rate: 97%
96% win-rate tennis bettor
A bettor with a 96% win rate and +$42.8k realized P&L just put nearly $2.9k into a thin tennis market, signaling conviction despite the market moving against their entry.
- This bettor wins 27 of 28 resolved markets and is up $42.8k lifetime
- They put $2.9k into a market with only $5.5k of 24-hour volume, so the size stands out
- Their average entry was about 55¢ on Fonseca, which is now available around 46¢
$2,900 on Fonseca | Wallet win rate: 97%
27-1 sharp in thin market
A bettor with an exceptional 27-1 record made a sizable buy into a very thin tennis set market, suggesting conviction worth tracking despite the modest dollar size.
- This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades and is up $42.8k on about $100.8k invested
- They bought Fonseca in a very quiet market where this single $1.45k trade dwarfed recent trading
- Entry at 50¢ suggests they saw the first set as closer to a coin flip or better despite a thin book
$1,448 on Fonseca | Wallet win rate: 97%
Top Holders
- 0x9f7b...7f37 — Fonseca, $9,751 (97% win rate)
- 0xc249...8a61 — Jodar, $2,500
- 0x5e30...acbf — Jodar, $1,711 (70% win rate)
- 0x0997...c9f6 — Jodar, $1,450
- 0x13f0...a50f — Jodar, $1,233 (100% win rate)
- 0xb468...1b9c — Fonseca, $970
- 0xc33d...0d40 — Jodar, $834
- 0xbfd7...f0bf — Jodar, $735
- 0x6fc4...c89d — Jodar, $652 (100% win rate)
- 0xdbdd...a5de — Jodar, $493 (51% win rate)
