Part of: Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5)
This Polymarket tennis market covers the set handicap for Flavio Cobolli vs Matteo Arnaldi at Roland Garros ATP: Cobolli must win by 2 or more sets for the “Cobolli” side to win, while “Arnaldi” wins if he stays within +1.5 sets or wins outright. The market is scheduled to resolve by June 12, 2026, with $3,398 in smart money tracked and 1 smart money signal currently flagged.
This market refers to the tennis match between Flavio Cobolli and Matteo Arnaldi in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for June 5, 2026 at 8:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Cobolli" if Flavio Cobolli wins by 2 or more sets than Matteo Arnaldi, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Arnaldi." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Grand Slam results.
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $20,204.
Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games
Notable Trades
Profitable new tennis whale
A 4-day-old repeat large bettor with early profits is buying Cobolli at 55¢ in a tennis handicap market, suggesting informed sports conviction despite a short track record.
- This 4-day-old wallet has already made 6 flagged large bets and is up $2,864.
- The bettor is 3-for-3 on resolved trades so far, turning $7,546 invested into early profit.
- A $3,398 buy at 55¢ shows fresh conviction on Cobolli covering the set handicap.
$3,398 on Cobolli | Wallet win rate: 100%
90% winner backs underdog handicap
Elite profitable sports bettor bought $11.5k of Arnaldi on a relatively quiet tennis handicap market, backed by a 90% historical win rate and strong cross-market record.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $1.83M lifetime.
- The $11.5k Arnaldi buy is larger than the market’s entire recent daily volume.
- They are a serial sports trader across 120 events with the same 90% win rate.
$11,500 on Arnaldi | Wallet win rate: 90%
Million-profit bettor buying handicap
A highly profitable high-volume wallet bought Cobolli at 54¢ amid a sharp pre-event volume spike in a relatively small tennis handicap market.
- This bettor is up $996k lifetime across 724 resolved markets.
- Their $2.3k buy is a large share of recent volume as activity spiked before the match.
- Entry at 54¢ suggests they see Cobolli covering the set handicap as mispriced.
$2,306 on Cobolli | Wallet win rate: 53%
90% win-rate tennis sharp
Sharp tennis bettor with a 90% historical win rate and strong cross-market track record bought $3,000 of Cobolli -1.5 at 53¢.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $277,646 lifetime.
- They have traded 195 events across 213 markets with the same 90% hit rate.
- A $3,000 buy at 53¢ is meaningful in a market with only $6,737 traded in the last 24 hours.
$3,000 on Cobolli | Wallet win rate: 90%
Top Holders
- 0xe5ef...9e7a — Cobolli, $45,000 (53% win rate)
- 0x9c76...c926 — Arnaldi, $26,861 (90% win rate)
- 0xd6ce...7ec8 — Arnaldi, $9,000 (81% win rate)
- 0x6157...9fb4 — Cobolli, $5,712 (90% win rate)
- 0x336b...1233 — Arnaldi, $4,643 (46% win rate)
- 0x4379...2e16 — Arnaldi, $3,080 (55% win rate)
- 0x5e30...acbf — Arnaldi, $2,423 (75% win rate)
- 0x36b4...d723 — Cobolli, $2,000
- 0x459e...7dd1 — Arnaldi, $1,791 (60% win rate)
- 0x502e...5442 — Arnaldi, $1,630 (92% win rate)
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