Part of: US Open ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

Set Handicap: Michelsen (-2.5) vs Aguilar (+2.5)

This prediction market covers the US Open ATP match between Alex Michelsen and Daniel Merida Aguilar, using a -2.5 set handicap for Michelsen and +2.5 for Aguilar. Michelsen wins the market if he finishes at least three sets ahead; otherwise, Aguilar wins. The market is scheduled to resolve by September 11, 2026, and has recorded one smart money signal, with a sharp serial trader buying Aguilar.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,850.

Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games

Notable Trades

Sharp serial trader buys Aguilar

A highly experienced bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial proven edge made a concentrated $3,850 bet on Aguilar in a thin market.

  • This bettor wins 82% of 340 resolved trades and is up nearly $977,000.
  • They placed a concentrated $3,850 bet on Aguilar in a market with only $5,006 total volume.
  • The 285-event cross-market track record supports this as a researched directional position, despite the price already implying a 76% chance.

$3,850 on Aguilar | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

  1. 0x0353...c2ff Outcome 30964401, $5,000 (82% win rate)
  2. 0xe559...c672 Outcome 30964401, $8
  3. 0x8fdf...af9e Outcome 30964401, $6

Related Theses

Belgium advances in low-scoring match

Covers 3 related markets

Low-scoring match, Villa held under two

Covers 3 related markets

Lille-Betis under four goals

Covers 3 related markets

Mannarino will beat Shapovalov

Covers 1 related market

Coco Gauff will beat Rybakina

Covers 1 related market

Fenerbahçe-Lyon will be low-scoring

Covers 1 related market

Celje-Slovan stays under 3.5

Covers 1 related market

Janice Tjen will defeat Kalinskaya

Covers 1 related market

Anderlecht-Hammarby stays low-scoring

Covers 1 related market

FC Midtjylland will win on August 20

Covers 1 related market

Set Handicap: Michelsen (-2.5) vs Aguilar (+2.5)

ResolvedUS Open ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida Aguilar$3,850 tracked1 signalTennisSportsGames

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Michelsen and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Michelsen" if Alex Michelsen wins by 3 or more sets than Daniel Merida Aguilar, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Aguilar." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Alex Michelsen can no longer win by 3 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Aguilar." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Grand Slam results.

Notable Trades

Set Handicap: Michelsen (-2.5) vs Aguilar (+2.5)

7d ago

$3,850 on Aguilar at 77¢

Related Theses