SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,620.

Categories: Tech, Big Tech, Elon Musk, IPO, SpaceX, IPOs, Climate & Science

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market bear

A profitable wallet is taking the cheap NO side in a thin long-dated SpaceX IPO market while also positioning across four related markets.

  • This bettor is up $32.7K lifetime with a 61% record across 41 resolved bets.
  • They have $33.6K positioned across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
  • Selling Yes at 90¢ is equivalent to buying No at 10¢, a high-upside bet if SpaceX does not IPO by 2027 or closes below $1.2T.

$1,620 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%

Top Holders

  1. 0x25dc...e33b No, $12,293 (54% win rate)
  2. 0x16c7...3931 Yes, $12,188 (61% win rate)
  3. 0x03e9...38fd Yes, $10,000
  4. 0x38a1...d1e4 No, $9,373
  5. 0xf566...1386 No, $6,000 (60% win rate)
  6. 0x7476...f26a Yes, $4,815
  7. 0x90ed...b5bc No, $4,765 (24% win rate)
  8. 0x3e0a...342d Yes, $3,468
  9. 0x7650...fac1 Yes, $2,066
  10. 0x59db...c353 Yes, $2,010

Related Theses

Covers 4 related markets

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?

607d$1,620 tracked1 signalTechBig TechElon MuskIPOSpaceXIPOsClimate & Science
Yes
91¢
No
10¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

Price History — “Yes
93¢
91¢
88¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?

2h ago

$1,620 on No at 10¢

10¢10¢

Related Theses