Part of: SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?

This prediction market asks whether SpaceX’s market capitalization will close above $1.6 trillion on its first public trading day. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $1,827 in smart money and 1 recent signal on this SpaceX IPO market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,827.

Categories: Tech, Big Tech, Elon Musk, IPO, SpaceX, IPOs, Climate & Science

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market SpaceX bettor

A profitable wallet is expressing a broader SpaceX IPO valuation thesis across six related markets, with this trade effectively buying No at 10¢ on a thinly traded long-dated market.

  • This wallet is up $9.6K lifetime and has put $77.5K across six related SpaceX IPO markets.
  • This trade is effectively buying No at 10¢, betting against a very high $1.6T first-day valuation.
  • The bet was 159% of this market’s 24h volume, showing meaningful conviction in a quiet market.

$1,827 on No | Wallet win rate: 42%

Top Holders

  1. 0xf566...1386 No, $5,050 (60% win rate)
  2. 0x3a8a...7699 Yes, $4,230 (89% win rate)
  3. 0x16c7...3931 Yes, $4,180 (42% win rate)
  4. 0xbc57...5c76 No, $4,000
  5. 0x25dc...e33b No, $2,930 (54% win rate)
  6. 0xd52b...5c72 No, $2,418 (100% win rate)
  7. 0x0e41...7599 Yes, $2,073
  8. 0xa41f...b397 Yes, $2,007 (63% win rate)
  9. 0xf797...0bf2 No, $1,822 (48% win rate)
  10. 0xa56c...a440 Yes, $1,676

Related Theses

SpaceX IPO tops $3T

Covers 7 related markets

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?

586dSpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?$1,827 tracked1 signalTechBig TechElon MuskIPOSpaceXIPOsClimate & Science
Yes
90¢
No
11¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

Price History — “Yes
97¢
91¢
86¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?

2h ago

$1,827 on No at 10¢

10¢11¢1¢

Related Theses