Part of: Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?

Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?

This Polymarket tracks whether the IRS or U.S. Treasury will issue formal guidance by April 15, 2027 classifying losses from CFTC-regulated sports event contracts as subject to the 90% loss cap under IRC Section 165(d). PolySpotter is tracking $4,862 in smart-money activity on this market, with recent alerts showing high-win-rate traders taking both Yes and No positions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by April 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the IRS or U.S. Department of the Treasury publishes formal guidance classifying losses from CFTC-regulated sports event contracts as subject to the 90% loss cap under Section 165(d) of the Internal Revenue Code, as amended by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Public Law 119-21). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, sports event contracts are contracts whose payoff is determined by the outcome, score, or statistical result of an athletic competition listed on a CFTC-designated contract market or swap execution facility. Qualifying guidance must be published in the Internal Revenue Bulletin or the Federal Register as a Revenue Ruling, Revenue Procedure, IRS Notice, IRS Announcement, final or temporary Treasury Regulation, or proposed Treasury Regulation that remains published without withdrawal for at least 30 calendar days after its Federal Register publication date. Guidance qualifies if it expressly applies Section 165(d) to such contracts or classifies them as wagering transactions for federal income tax purposes. Guidance classifying sports event contracts as wagering solely for purposes of Section 4401, Section 6041, Section 3402(q), or other Code sections that do not bear on the deductibility of losses does not qualify. Non-qualifying actions include Private Letter Rulings, Chief Counsel Advice, Tax Court decisions, IRS official statements, Congressional testimony, and web-based publications not appearing in the Internal Revenue Bulletin or Federal Register. A final and non-appealable decision of the U.S. Supreme Court holding that CFTC-regulated sports event contracts are subject to Section 165(d) also qualifies for resolution. This market will resolve to "No" if qualifying guidance is withdrawn, modified into non-qualifying form, or superseded by non-qualifying guidance before April 15, 2027; if federal legislation repeals Section 165(d) or exempts CFTC-regulated sports event contracts from its application; if federal legislation establishes a tax treatment for sports event contracts incompatible with Section 165(d) prior to qualifying guidance being issued; or if the CFTC prohibits the listing of sports event contracts on all CFTC-designated contract markets before any qualifying guidance is issued. The resolution source for this market is the Internal Revenue Bulletin (irs.gov/irb) and the Federal Register (federalregister.gov).

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,822.

Categories: Taxes, Sports, Politics, Prediction Markets

Notable Trades

86% winner backs Yes

A highly experienced, profitable wallet is effectively buying Yes with a ~$4.9k position that was over half of the market's 24h volume.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $18k lifetime.
  • The $4.9k trade was roughly 51% of the market’s 24h volume, showing real conviction in a quiet market.
  • Selling No at 70¢ is the same as buying Yes around 30¢, above the current 28–29¢ market.

$4,862 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

86% winner buys No

Despite a weak low-activity signal, this is worth surfacing because the buyer has an 86% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $18.3K lifetime.
  • They put $4.0K on No in a market with only $9.6K total volume so far.
  • Entry at 55¢ has already moved to about 60¢, suggesting early confirmation.

$3,960 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

Top Holders

  1. 0x7fd3...aedd Yes, $1,975
  2. 0xcc7c...1d18 Yes, $1,300 (11% win rate)
  3. 0xe0a2...a349 No, $626
  4. 0x1c14...0869 No, $500 (61% win rate)
  5. 0xee01...b01f Yes, $500
  6. 0xab2d...b1aa No, $478 (51% win rate)
  7. 0xa38e...5062 Yes, $440
  8. 0x8de2...8483 No, $343 (86% win rate)
  9. 0x6e49...f1af No, $331 (51% win rate)
  10. 0xea25...2a4f No, $330

Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?

318dSports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?$8,822 tracked2 signalsTaxesSportsPoliticsPrediction Markets
Yes
38¢
No
63¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by April 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the IRS or U.S. Department of the Treasury publishes formal guidance classifying losses from CFTC-regulated sports event contracts as subject to the 90% loss cap under Section 165(d) of the Internal Revenue Code, as amended by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Public Law 119-21). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, sports event contracts are contracts whose payoff is determined by the outcome, score, or statistical result of an athletic competition listed on a CFTC-designated contract market or swap execution facility. Qualifying guidance must be published in the Internal Revenue Bulletin or the Federal Register as a Revenue Ruling, Revenue Procedure, IRS Notice, IRS Announcement, final or temporary Treasury Regulation, or proposed Treasury Regulation that remains published without withdrawal for at least 30 calendar days after its Federal Register publication date. Guidance qualifies if it expressly applies Section 165(d) to such contracts or classifies them as wagering transactions for federal income tax purposes. Guidance classifying sports event contracts as wagering solely for purposes of Section 4401, Section 6041, Section 3402(q), or other Code sections that do not bear on the deductibility of losses does not qualify. Non-qualifying actions include Private Letter Rulings, Chief Counsel Advice, Tax Court decisions, IRS official statements, Congressional testimony, and web-based publications not appearing in the Internal Revenue Bulletin or Federal Register. A final and non-appealable decision of the U.S. Supreme Court holding that CFTC-regulated sports event contracts are subject to Section 165(d) also qualifies for resolution. This market will resolve to "No" if qualifying guidance is withdrawn, modified into non-qualifying form, or superseded by non-qualifying guidance before April 15, 2027; if federal legislation repeals Section 165(d) or exempts CFTC-regulated sports event contracts from its application; if federal legislation establishes a tax treatment for sports event contracts incompatible with Section 165(d) prior to qualifying guidance being issued; or if the CFTC prohibits the listing of sports event contracts on all CFTC-designated contract markets before any qualifying guidance is issued. The resolution source for this market is the Internal Revenue Bulletin (irs.gov/irb) and the Federal Register (federalregister.gov).

Price History — “No
72¢
64¢
55¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?

1h ago

$4,862 on Yes at 30¢

30¢38¢8¢

Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?

3h ago

$3,960 on No at 55¢

55¢63¢8¢