Part of: Patriots vs. Bills

Spread: Bills (-1.5)

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Bills" if the Bills win the game by 2 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Patriots". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Patriots". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,686.

Categories: Sports, NFL (All), Games

Notable Trades

Seven-market game thesis

The wallet has built a roughly $50.9K position across seven markets tied to the game, though its long-term record is profitable but not clearly exceptional relative to its average entry odds.

  • The wallet has positioned about $50.9K across seven markets tied to this game, including Patriots and Under.
  • It has won 55% of 53,675 resolved bets and is up $5.2M lifetime, though its average winning entry price is 59¢.
  • The Patriots position was bought at 47¢, but the current price has slipped to 42¢.

$3,438 on Patriots | Wallet win rate: 55%

Profitable serial trader backs Bills

A highly active bettor with a large positive lifetime P&L bought Bills at 52¢, though their 81% win rate is only modestly above their average winning price.

  • This bettor is up about $1.02M across more than 3,100 resolved bets.
  • They bought Bills at 52¢, and the market has since risen to 58¢.
  • The wallet has traded across 531 events, though its 81% win rate is close to its 77¢ average winning price.

$1,247 on Bills | Wallet win rate: 81%

Top Holders

  1. 0xb3cf...0ebd — Bills, $2,399 (81% win rate)
  2. 0xfe78...0319 — Bills, $555 (64% win rate)
  3. 0x945a...a48c — Bills, $25
  4. 0x1a59...a57e — Bills, $24
  5. 0xf30a...61fb — Bills, $24
  6. 0x18fc...7171 — Bills, $23
  7. 0x0eca...c56a — Bills, $20
  8. 0xa134...1933 — Bills, $1

Related Theses

Thunder or Spurs win Finals

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Rams edge Broncos narrowly

Covers 4 related markets

San Jose State wins narrowly

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Cavaliers won't win East

Covers 3 related markets

Knicks win Finals 4-1

Covers 3 related markets

Alcaraz wins, rivals fall short

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Spread: Bills (-1.5)

Patriots vs. Bills$4,686 tracked2 signalsSportsNFL (All)Games
Bills
0¢
Patriots
100¢

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Bills" if the Bills win the game by 2 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Patriots". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Patriots". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Notable Trades

Spread: Bills (-1.5)

2026-10-04 17:29 UTC

$3,438 on Patriots at 47¢

47¢→100¢↑53¢

Spread: Bills (-1.5)

2026-10-04 17:29 UTC

$1,247 on Bills at 52¢

Related Theses