Part of: Colts vs. Commanders
Spread: Colts (-8.5)
In the upcoming NFL football game between Colts and Commanders, scheduled for October 4 at 9:30 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Colts" if the Colts win the game by 9 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Commanders". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $44,880.
Categories: Sports, NFL (All), Games
Notable Trades
Profitable whale, mixed event positioning
A highly profitable, extremely active wallet deployed about $40.5K across 33 markets in the event, but bought both sides of this spread, so the signal is notable rather than a clear directional edge.
- This wallet is up $5.27M across more than 53,000 resolved bets, though its 55% win rate does not establish a clear edge at these prices.
- It traded about $40.5K across 33 markets tied to the event, alongside a sharp price move and a 20.9× volume spike.
- The spread bets are mixed: it bought both Colts and Commanders, so the latest Colts purchase at 62¢ is not a clean one-way thesis.
$40,539 on Colts | Wallet win rate: 55%
80% winner with $831K profit
A highly profitable, experienced bettor with an 80% record is buying Commanders at 43¢ and has substantial related-event positioning.
- This bettor has won 528 of 662 resolved trades and is up $831K.
- They bought Commanders at 43¢ and have positions across three markets in this event.
- The market has only $3,914 in liquidity and a notably wide 38¢ bid-ask spread.
$2,326 on Commanders | Wallet win rate: 81%
Proven 90% winner positioning across event
A highly profitable bettor with 2,267 resolved positions bought Colts at 53¢ and has substantial activity across seven markets in the same event.
- This bettor has won 90% of 2,267 resolved positions and is up over $4.1 million.
- They bought Colts at 53¢, while the market has since risen to 56¢.
- The trader has activity across seven markets in this event, totaling $35,413.
$2,014 on Colts | Wallet win rate: 91%
Top Holders
- 0xe558...dcd2 — Commanders, $6,278 (81% win rate)
- 0x8935...7daa — Commanders, $405 (70% win rate)
- 0x7651...4dcc — Commanders, $19
- 0xb8ef...2864 — Commanders, $11 (80% win rate)
- 0x1eea...af80 — Commanders, $10
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