Part of: Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
This prediction market asks whether Tyler Robinson will be convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the State of Utah v. Tyler James Robinson case. The latest listed smart-money activity includes a Yes purchase at 44%, though market odds can change. The rules state that the market resolves by July 31, 2027, while the page lists a December 31, 2026 resolution date.
Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No". If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No". If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,458.
Categories: Culture, Politics, Charlie, Charlie Kirk, Trump, Kirk
Notable Trades
New whale scaling into Yes
A two-hour-old wallet has built a roughly $12.7K Yes position in a relatively thin market, but lacks any resolved track record or corroborating signal.
- A wallet only two hours old has committed about $12.7K to Yes, including $3,901 across two flagged buys.
- The position is large relative to the market’s roughly $5.7K liquidity, indicating substantial conviction in a thin market.
- There is no resolved betting history yet, so the signal is based on sizing and timing rather than a proven edge.
$3,901 on Yes
Sharp bettor buys conviction at 44%
A highly profitable bettor with an 80% win rate and 213 resolved positions is making a concentrated bet that conviction will occur, despite the market pricing Yes at only 44%.
- This bettor has won 80% of 213 resolved positions and is up $251,593 lifetime.
- The $2,800 trade represents 75.5% of the market’s recent volume, showing unusually strong conviction.
- Selling No at 56¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 44¢, while the wallet actively trades across 27 events.
$2,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
New repeat whale buying NO
A 7-day-old wallet with repeated large flagged bets is adding a $5.8k NO position into a market already trending toward NO.
- This 7-day-old wallet has already placed 6 large flagged bets totaling about $20.9k.
- They bought $5.8k of NO at 58¢, and the market has already moved to 60¢.
- The market has been trending toward NO, with YES down 14 points over the past week.
$5,757 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $34,396 (70% win rate)
- 0xbacd...ab35 — Yes, $20,906 (49% win rate)
- 0x81c8...0738 — Yes, $20,673
- 0x60a9...5a71 — No, $12,662 (49% win rate)
- 0xa7a6...8117 — Yes, $10,516 (95% win rate)
- 0xe4de...c949 — No, $10,000 (100% win rate)
- 0x4103...1c17 — Yes, $9,101
- 0xf44d...60af — Yes, $6,141 (54% win rate)
- 0x00d1...c8a4 — No, $5,987 (44% win rate)
- 0x49f2...d7b4 — No, $4,227 (49% win rate)
Related Theses
MOUZ Wins Map 3
Covers 1 related market
MOUZ wins Map 2, loses series
Covers 2 related markets
JD Gaming wins Game 3
Covers 1 related market
MIBR wins Counter-Strike Map 1
Covers 1 related market
MOUZ Will Win Map 2
Covers 1 related market
Legacy will win Map 2
Covers 1 related market
Vitality Wins Map One
Covers 1 related market
Spirit will win Map 2
Covers 1 related market
Tyler Robinson will be convicted
Covers 1 related market
FURIA wins the series
Covers 1 related market
