UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Prelims)

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $15,132.

Categories: Sports, UFC, Games

Notable Trades

82% win-rate UFC bettor

A proven 82% win-rate bettor bought Thomas Petersen at 80¢ before a massive pre-fight volume and price surge, and the market has since moved to 100¢.

  • This bettor wins 82% of their resolved trades and is up $25.2k on over $105k wagered.
  • They bought Thomas Petersen at 80¢ before the price ran to 100% on a 118x volume spike.
  • This wallet has made 121 bets across 103 events, so this looks like a repeat sharp sports trader rather than a one-off punt.

$994 on Thomas Petersen | Wallet win rate: 82%

82% win-rate sports bettor

A highly profitable 82% win-rate sports trader with over $881k in realized profit just bought nearly $2k of Guilherme Pat in a market that has moved sharply, making this a credible sharp-bettor signal despite the modest size.

  • This bettor wins 82% of 397 resolved trades and is up about $881k lifetime
  • They trade heavily across 55 events and just took Guilherme Pat at 74¢, showing a clear directional view
  • The market has been moving fast, so this buy looks like part of informed action rather than random flow

$1,997 on Guilherme Pat | Wallet win rate: 82%

82% win-rate sharp

An 82%-win bettor with nearly $900k in profits bought Guilherme Pat before a fast 11-point move higher, making this a credible sharp follow despite the modest size.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $881k lifetime
  • They bought Guilherme Pat at 71¢, and the market moved to 80¢ within minutes
  • The wallet has traded 55 related events across 64 markets, suggesting a repeatable sports betting edge

$1,640 on Guilherme Pat | Wallet win rate: 82%

Profitable UFC thesis trader

A highly active, very profitable cross-market trader sold Guilherme Pat at 50¢, which converts to a fresh buy on Thomas Petersen at 50¢ during an unusually large pre-fight volume spike.

  • This bettor has 870 resolved bets, wins 64% of them, and is up $4.1M lifetime
  • The trade came during a 655x volume spike, suggesting sharper money was moving into this fight market
  • Selling Guilherme Pat at 50¢ is equivalent to buying Thomas Petersen at 50¢ in a coin-flip market

$1,832 on Thomas Petersen | Wallet win rate: 50%

Sharp cluster backing Pat

Three wallets piled into Guilherme Pat as the price broke sharply upward, led by an 82% win-rate trader with over $881k in profit across 397 resolved markets.

  • An 82% win-rate bettor with $881k profit is part of this 3-wallet move into Guilherme Pat
  • The group put $7.6k on one side and helped drive Pat up from 52¢ to 76¢ in minutes
  • One wallet sold Petersen at 49¢, which is equivalent to buying Pat at 51¢ before the market repriced

$7,605 on Guilherme Pat

New whale repeat bettor

A 1.6-day-old wallet has already deployed nearly $49k, is up $1.25k, and keeps making large bets, making this fresh UFC position worth watching despite the modest size.

  • This wallet is only about 2 days old but has already put nearly $49k to work across 9 positions
  • It has been flagged 9 times for large early bets and is already up $1,251
  • This is a fresh buy at 51¢ in a liquid, evenly priced UFC market, suggesting real conviction rather than chasing a blowout move

$1,064 on Thomas Petersen | Wallet win rate: 67%

Top Holders

  1. 0x1433...56a0 Outcome 39066332, $41,694 (97% win rate)
  2. 0x12af...ff78 Outcome 39066332, $18,864 (76% win rate)
  3. 0x477f...6c45 Outcome 39066332, $11,344 (52% win rate)
  4. 0x12ec...41ae Outcome 39066332, $10,047 (84% win rate)
  5. 0x0441...e90f Outcome 39066332, $7,499 (77% win rate)
  6. 0x01bf...070d Outcome 39066332, $7,000 (50% win rate)
  7. 0x8a92...6941 Outcome 39066332, $6,025 (62% win rate)
  8. 0x9eca...5a59 Outcome 39066332, $5,209 (100% win rate)
  9. 0xd161...4cc1 Outcome 39066332, $4,986
  10. 0x6dd6...f5f4 Outcome 39066332, $3,727 (72% win rate)

Related Theses

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UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Prelims)

Resolved$15,132 tracked6 signalsSportsUFCGames

This market will resolve to "Thomas Petersen" if Thomas Petersen is officially declared the winner of the fight against Guilherme Pat at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan, scheduled for April 4, 2026. It will resolve to "Guilherme Pat" if Guilherme Pat is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 18, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Notable Trades

UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Prelims)

3d ago

$994 on Thomas Petersen at 80¢

UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Prelims)

3d ago

$1,997 on Guilherme Pat at 74¢

UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Prelims)

3d ago

$1,640 on Guilherme Pat at 71¢

UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Prelims)

3d ago

$1,832 on Thomas Petersen at 50¢

UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Prelims)

3d ago

$7,605 on Guilherme Pat at 58¢

UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Prelims)

3d ago

$1,064 on Thomas Petersen at 51¢

Related Theses

UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Prelims) | PolySpotter