UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Prelims)
6 signals across 1 market · $15,132 tracked · resolves Apr 5, 2026
This event tracks the prediction market odds for Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat, a heavyweight prelim at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan. Traders are pricing which fighter will be officially declared the winner, with the market resolving 50-50 if the bout ends in a draw, no contest, cancellation, or qualifying postponement. PolySpotter has tracked $15,132 in smart money across 6 signals, including sharp-cluster activity backing Pat.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- 82% win-rate UFC bettor
A proven 82% win-rate bettor bought Thomas Petersen at 80¢ before a massive pre-fight volume and price surge, and the market has since moved to 100¢.
$994Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 11.6 - Sharp cluster backing Pat
Three wallets piled into Guilherme Pat as the price broke sharply upward, led by an 82% win-rate trader with over $881k in profit across 397 resolved markets.
$7,605Score: 11.2 - Profitable UFC thesis trader
A highly active, very profitable cross-market trader sold Guilherme Pat at 50¢, which converts to a fresh buy on Thomas Petersen at 50¢ during an unusually large pre-fight volume spike.
$1,832Wallet win rate: 43%Score: 6.3 - New whale repeat bettor
A 1.6-day-old wallet has already deployed nearly $49k, is up $1.25k, and keeps making large bets, making this fresh UFC position worth watching despite the modest size.
$1,064Wallet win rate: 34%Score: 6.0 - 82% win-rate sharp
An 82%-win bettor with nearly $900k in profits bought Guilherme Pat before a fast 11-point move higher, making this a credible sharp follow despite the modest size.
$1,640Wallet win rate: 81%Score: 5.1 - 82% win-rate sports bettor
A highly profitable 82% win-rate sports trader with over $881k in realized profit just bought nearly $2k of Guilherme Pat in a market that has moved sharply, making this a credible sharp-bettor signal despite the modest size.
$1,997Wallet win rate: 81%Score: 5.1
Top wallets in this event
- 0x2b15b1…9b08$3,637 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 81% wins
- 0xfbf3d5…b218$1,832 · 1 market · 1 alert · 43% wins
- 0x995ea4…13ae$1,064 · 1 market · 1 alert · 34% wins
- 0x898245…59fb$994 · 1 market · 1 alert · 80% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat?
The live odds are set by traders buying and selling shares on the Petersen vs. Pat prediction market. On PolySpotter, you can track how those odds move as fight week approaches and as smart-money activity enters the market.
What is the smart money doing on Petersen vs. Pat?
PolySpotter has tracked $15,132 in smart money across 6 signals for this UFC prelim. Recent alerts include an 82% win-rate UFC bettor, a profitable UFC thesis trader, and a sharp cluster backing Guilherme Pat.
Is sharp money backing Thomas Petersen or Guilherme Pat?
Recent PolySpotter alerts show notable sharp activity on the Pat side, including a “sharp cluster backing Pat.” That does not guarantee the outcome, but it highlights where tracked profitable or high-conviction bettors have been active.
When does the Petersen vs. Pat market resolve?
The market is scheduled to resolve after the official result of the fight, with a listed resolution deadline of April 5, 2026. If the fight is canceled, postponed beyond April 18, 2026, ruled a draw, technical draw, no contest, or not scored, it resolves 50-50.