Part of: US Open ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida Aguilar
US Open ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida Aguilar
8 smart money signals detected, totaling $279,239.
Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games
Notable Trades
Serial sharp backing Michelsen
A highly profitable serial trader with an 81% win rate made a fresh $4,000 bet amid a 42x volume spike and a sharp move toward Michelsen.
- This bettor has won 81% of 1,150 resolved trades and earned $639,427 in profit.
- The $4,000 Michelsen bet came during a 42.4x volume surge, alongside a 16-point price move toward Michelsen.
- This trader has appeared across 352 events and 361 markets, suggesting a broad, repeatable betting edge rather than a one-off wager.
$4,000 on Alex Michelsen | Wallet win rate: 81%
91% winner scaling into Michelsen
A serial cross-market bettor with 91% wins added $11.3K to an already $85K Alex Michelsen position amid a 42x volume spike and 16-point price move.
- This bettor has won 91% of 230 resolved trades and is up $356,559 lifetime.
- The wallet added $11,332 to an existing $85,411 Michelsen position, showing substantial conviction despite the market already being heavily favored.
- The trade coincided with a 42x historical volume spike and a 16-point price jump toward Michelsen.
$11,332 on Alex Michelsen | Wallet win rate: 89%
Sharp bettor backs the underdog
A proven 79% bettor with serial cross-market activity sold the favorite while holding the underdog, amid a major volume spike, signaling a potentially informed contrarian position.
- This bettor has won 79% of 76 resolved trades and is up $13,188.
- The sale of Alex Michelsen at 73¢ is equivalent to buying Daniel Merida Aguilar at 27¢, consistent with the wallet’s existing underdog position.
- The market saw a 156x historical volume spike, adding support to the directional signal.
$1,293 on Daniel Merida Aguilar | Wallet win rate: 80%
Elite bettor adds to Michelsen
A highly profitable serial sports trader with an 84% win rate and substantial edge is adding $10,000 to Alex Michelsen at 63%.
- This bettor has won 84% of 617 resolved positions and is up $1.07 million.
- The wallet has made $508,248 across 132 events, showing a sustained cross-market track record.
- A fresh $10,000 addition to an existing Michelsen position signals continued conviction at 63%.
$10,000 on Alex Michelsen | Wallet win rate: 85%
24-wallet linked Michelsen cluster
A large, coordinated Michelsen position from 24 wallets, including five shared funders and a bettor with a strong 76% record, represents notable conviction despite the market now being fully priced.
- Twenty-four wallets deployed $223,361 toward Alex Michelsen, with five shared funders behind the cluster.
- One participating bettor wins 76% of trades at an average 36¢ entry and is up $29,482.
- The strongest purchases came around 63–70¢, while the market has since moved to 100%, so the original edge is no longer available at current prices.
$223,361 on Alex Michelsen
Perfect-record bettor adds to Michelsen
A proven serial cross-market bettor with 169 wins from 169 resolved trades is adding $5,000 to an existing Alex Michelsen position at 65%.
- This bettor has won 169 of 169 resolved trades and is up $141,006 lifetime.
- The wallet has traded across 81 events and 91 markets, suggesting a consistent directional process rather than a one-off bet.
- The additional $5,000 matches an existing $7,654 Michelsen position, showing increased conviction at 65%.
$5,000 on Alex Michelsen | Wallet win rate: 100%
Sharp serial trader exits Daniel
A highly profitable serial trader with a 78% win rate is exiting Daniel Merida Aguilar, implying a move toward Alex Michelsen, though the trade appears to be position management rather than a fresh bet.
- This bettor wins 78% of 4,145 resolved trades and is up $1.65 million.
- The $3,973 exit from Daniel at 38¢ converts to buying Alex at roughly 62¢.
- The trader previously held over $10,000 in Daniel, so this is likely an informed exit but not a fresh position.
$3,973 on Alex Michelsen | Wallet win rate: 79%
Sharp bettor scaling into Michelsen
A highly profitable serial trader with an 81% win rate and substantial positive edge is adding $20,281 to Alex Michelsen at 61¢.
- This bettor has won 81% of 260 resolved trades and is up $958,309.
- They are adding $20,281 to an existing Michelsen position at 61¢, indicating increased conviction.
- The wallet has traded across 209 markets and 180 events, with a reported 28-point edge over implied odds.
$20,281 on Alex Michelsen | Wallet win rate: 56%
Top Holders
- 0x336b...1233 — Outcome 30332017, $52,916 (52% win rate)
- 0xdb85...152f — Outcome 30332017, $50,000 (88% win rate)
- 0x54ba...04e4 — Outcome 30332017, $17,484 (76% win rate)
- 0x7568...2ce1 — Outcome 30332017, $17,241 (96% win rate)
- 0xa2c9...2c23 — Outcome 30332017, $12,881 (80% win rate)
- 0xfb07...e2cc — Outcome 30332017, $12,000
- 0xacf8...e791 — Outcome 30332017, $7,756 (71% win rate)
- 0xf9f5...ab8c — Outcome 30332017, $5,758 (80% win rate)
- 0xbbc8...52a8 — Outcome 30332017, $5,579 (73% win rate)
- 0xf12f...b30f — Outcome 30332017, $5,405 (95% win rate)
Related Theses
Qatar Switzerland stays low scoring
Covers 4 related markets
Scoreless first half, late blowout
Covers 3 related markets
Tommy Paul beats Altmaier
Covers 1 related market
