Part of: US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Frances Tiafoe
US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Frances Tiafoe
This Polymarket prediction market covers the 2026 US Open ATP match between Daniil Medvedev and Frances Tiafoe, scheduled for September 6, 2026. It resolves to the player who advances, with $3,574 in tracked smart money and recent signals favoring Medvedev; the market deadline is September 20, 2026, if the match is not completed.
10 smart money signals detected, totaling $557,308.
Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games
Notable Trades
Elite bettor in 40-wallet Medvedev cluster
A highly profitable bettor with an 84% win rate joined a 40-wallet linked cluster buying Medvedev, although the market has since repriced sharply against that position.
- This bettor has won 84% of 1,488 resolved positions and earned $2.13M in profit, far above the odds paid.
- Forty wallets bought Medvedev for a combined $326,645, with linked funding indicating unusually concentrated conviction.
- The entry was 56¢, but Medvedev is currently shown at 0¢ after a 36-point price drop, making the market state especially important to verify.
$2,489 on Daniil Medvedev | Wallet win rate: 84%
96% winner in 40-wallet Medvedev cluster
A proven high-edge bettor joined a 40-wallet linked cluster buying Medvedev at 43%, despite the market subsequently collapsing to 0%.
- This bettor has won 96% of 71 resolved positions and is up $250,016, with an average entry price of 47%.
- Forty wallets bought Daniil Medvedev for a combined $326,645, with links to two common funders.
- The trade entered at 43%, but Medvedev's displayed price has since fallen to 0%, making the position highly speculative and potentially stale or impaired.
$1,085 on Daniil Medvedev | Wallet win rate: 96%
Elite bettor scaling into Medvedev
A highly profitable serial bettor with an 85% win rate and substantial edge is adding to a large Medvedev position amid a 110x volume spike.
- This bettor wins 85% of 623 resolved positions and is up $1.12 million.
- They are adding to an existing $16,130 Medvedev position at 62¢, signaling continued conviction.
- The market saw a 110x historical volume spike, while this serial trader has participated across 142 events.
$3,549 on Daniil Medvedev | Wallet win rate: 85%
93% win-rate bettor buys Tiafoe
A highly profitable serial trader with a 93% win rate and substantial implied-odds edge is buying Tiafoe at 38 cents amid a major volume spike.
- This bettor has won 93% of 2,589 resolved positions and is up $2.21 million.
- The entry backs Tiafoe at 38 cents despite current market odds implying only a 38% chance, signaling strong conviction in the underdog.
- Trading activity is running at 110 times the historical average, adding meaningful confirmation to the position.
$1,421 on Frances Tiafoe | Wallet win rate: 93%
Seven-wallet Medvedev conviction cluster
Seven wallets committed $82,085 to Medvedev during a 226.8x volume spike, including several highly profitable bettors with strong historical win rates.
- Seven wallets put $82,085 behind Medvedev, including a bettor with 91% wins and another with 79% wins.
- The market saw a 226.8x historical volume spike, making this unusually concentrated tennis-market activity.
- Several wallets are adding to existing Medvedev positions, signaling reinforced conviction rather than a one-off trade.
$82,085 on Daniil Medvedev
57-wallet sharp-money coalition
A large linked-wallet coalition backed Frances Tiafoe, with several participants showing exceptional long-term win rates and the market moving sharply in their direction.
- 57 wallets linked to four funders bought $451,106 of Frances Tiafoe, creating an unusually concentrated directional signal.
- Several participants have outstanding records, including 90% wins at a 51% average entry price and 93% wins across 2,591 resolved positions.
- Frances Tiafoe rose 43 percentage points while Medvedev fell 36 points, strongly corroborating the coalition’s thesis.
$451,106 on Frances Tiafoe
Elite bettor scaling into Medvedev
A highly profitable serial bettor with an 85% win rate and substantial edge is adding to a large Medvedev position amid a 110x volume spike.
- This bettor wins 85% of 623 resolved positions and is up $1.12 million.
- They are adding to an existing $16,130 Medvedev position at 62¢, signaling continued conviction.
- The market saw a 110x historical volume spike, while this serial trader has participated across 142 events.
$2,417 on Daniil Medvedev | Wallet win rate: 85%
93% win-rate bettor buys Tiafoe
A highly profitable serial trader with a 93% win rate and substantial implied-odds edge is buying Tiafoe at 38 cents amid a major volume spike.
- This bettor has won 93% of 2,589 resolved positions and is up $2.21 million.
- The entry backs Tiafoe at 38 cents despite current market odds implying only a 38% chance, signaling strong conviction in the underdog.
- Trading activity is running at 110 times the historical average, adding meaningful confirmation to the position.
$3,000 on Frances Tiafoe | Wallet win rate: 93%
Sharp bettor scaling into Medvedev
A highly profitable bettor with an 87% win rate and substantial edge is adding $3,056 to an existing Medvedev position.
- This bettor wins 87% of 68 resolved positions and is up $202,888 lifetime.
- The wallet is adding $3,056 to an existing $4,930 Medvedev position, signaling increased conviction.
- A serial trader active across 69 events is buying Medvedev at 62%, near the current market price.
$3,056 on Daniil Medvedev | Wallet win rate: 87%
96% winner adds to Medvedev
A highly proven bettor with a 96% win rate and substantial edge is adding $7,100 to an existing Medvedev position.
- This bettor has won 129 of 134 resolved bets, with a $262,221 lifetime profit.
- They are adding $7,100 to an existing Medvedev position rather than making a routine one-off trade.
- The 62¢ entry implies the bettor sees Medvedev as materially undervalued despite the market already pricing him at 62%.
$7,100 on Daniil Medvedev | Wallet win rate: 96%
Top Holders
- 0x3dfb...abaf — Outcome 76273644, $145,998 (49% win rate)
- 0xdb85...152f — Outcome 76273644, $100,000 (88% win rate)
- 0x979f...4032 — Outcome 76273644, $40,000 (94% win rate)
- 0x772f...8145 — Outcome 76273644, $26,272 (91% win rate)
- 0xef1b...8697 — Outcome 76273644, $19,537 (49% win rate)
- 0xf742...e039 — Outcome 76273644, $17,812 (41% win rate)
- 0x41b4...10da — Outcome 76273644, $17,111 (58% win rate)
- 0xc288...8957 — Outcome 76273644, $16,327 (100% win rate)
- 0x0cdf...ec9e — Outcome 76273644, $11,452 (96% win rate)
- 0xf12f...b30f — Outcome 76273644, $8,933 (95% win rate)
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