Part of: US x Cuba economic deal by...?

US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?

This prediction market tracks whether the United States and Cuba reach a publicly announced mutual agreement on trade, tariffs, sanctions, the embargo, or related economic restrictions by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes if a qualifying agreement is reached and No otherwise; check the live Polymarket odds for the latest market view.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. Only deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,818.

Categories: Geopolitics, Trump, Economy, Cuba, Oil, Venezuela, embargo, Russia, Trade War

Notable Trades

91% serial cross-market bettor

A serial cross-market bettor with a 91% win rate placed a large No bet representing over half of 24-hour volume, and the market has since moved sharply in that direction.

  • This bettor has won 91% of 67 resolved trades and earned over $25,000 in profit.
  • The $1,818 No purchase represented 56.5% of the market’s 24-hour volume.
  • No has risen from the 63¢ entry to about 84%, confirming strong movement toward the bettor’s position.

$1,818 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

Top Holders

  1. 0x85a8...9281 No, $3,081 (92% win rate)
  2. 0x4ef2...7e31 Yes, $2,150
  3. 0x4730...cfd4 Yes, $1,655
  4. 0x60a9...5a71 Yes, $1,559 (49% win rate)
  5. 0xd6a4...1abc No, $621
  6. 0xe964...537f No, $585
  7. 0x588c...1bf4 No, $540
  8. 0xc4a6...7a30 No, $485
  9. 0x2262...b2cf No, $459
  10. 0xfe4e...985d No, $448

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US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?

128dUS x Cuba economic deal by...?$1,818 tracked1 signalGeopoliticsTrumpEconomyCubaOilVenezuelaembargoRussiaTrade War
Yes
15¢
No
85¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. Only deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Price History — “No
87¢
80¢
73¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?

26d ago

$1,818 on No at 63¢

63¢85¢22¢

Related Theses