Part of: US x Cuba economic deal by...?

US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether the United States and Cuba will publicly announce a mutual economic agreement covering trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo by June 30, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $1,546 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this market, including alerts from profitable macro and event traders. The market resolves “Yes” only if a qualifying official agreement is reached by the deadline; otherwise it resolves “No.”

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. Only deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,032.

Categories: Geopolitics, Trump, Economy, Cuba, Oil, Venezuela, embargo, Russia, Trade War

Notable Trades

Profitable macro regular

Profitable serial cross-market bettor bought No in a quiet political market with a trade larger than recent daily volume.

  • This bettor has 321 resolved bets, wins 69%, and is up $23k lifetime.
  • They are a frequent cross-market trader, with $210k deployed across 58 markets and 46 events.
  • The $1.5k No buy was about 147% of recent 24h volume, showing conviction in a quiet market.

$1,546 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding a meaningful Yes bet in a quiet politics market with recent upward momentum.

  • This bettor is up $156K across 146 resolved markets and actively trades event-linked theses.
  • Their $1.5K Yes buy is a large share of today’s quiet volume, suggesting real conviction.
  • The market has moved up 9.5 points this week, matching the direction of this buy.

$1,486 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%

Top Holders

  1. 0xb4f2...e5fa No, $6,252 (70% win rate)
  2. 0x10f4...7728 Yes, $5,505 (100% win rate)
  3. 0x97f3...0eba Yes, $5,467 (41% win rate)
  4. 0x2e61...19bd No, $5,418 (43% win rate)
  5. 0x60a9...5a71 No, $4,192 (49% win rate)
  6. 0x7447...a16d Yes, $3,788 (59% win rate)
  7. 0x498d...3e20 No, $2,667 (100% win rate)
  8. 0xd397...9d09 No, $2,511 (91% win rate)
  9. 0x257d...a183 Yes, $1,569
  10. 0x5018...6108 No, $1,429 (66% win rate)

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US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?

19dUS x Cuba economic deal by...?$3,032 tracked2 signalsGeopoliticsTrumpEconomyCubaOilVenezuelaembargoRussiaTrade War
Yes
10¢
No
91¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. Only deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Price History — “No
93¢
88¢
83¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?

14d ago

$1,546 on No at 80¢

80¢91¢11¢

US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?

27d ago

$1,486 on Yes at 26¢

26¢10¢16¢

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