US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether authorized representatives of the United States and Iran will hold an official diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026. The market resolves Yes only if a direct, deliberate meeting on US-Iran relations takes place before the deadline; indirect contacts or unofficial discussions do not count. Traders watching US-Iran tensions, ceasefire diplomacy, and broader geopolitics use this market to gauge the odds of a formal breakthrough.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,062.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

93% win-rate bettor

A historically elite wallet with a 93% win rate and strong edge is buying into a fast-moving geopolitical market, making this a notable thesis to watch despite the modest size.

  • This bettor wins 93% of their trades and is up about $57k across 808 resolved positions
  • They bought Yes at 78¢ in a geopolitical market after a 37.5-point one-day move, suggesting they still see upside
  • They are building a related three-market thesis around the same event, which adds confidence beyond a one-off bet

$1,062 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%

Top Holders

  1. 0x6d9f...9790 No, $8,000 (62% win rate)
  2. 0x68c2...1711 Yes, $6,458 (57% win rate)
  3. 0x853c...bd03 Yes, $3,932 (50% win rate)
  4. 0xc4b2...9a9b No, $3,874 (87% win rate)
  5. 0x3201...6634 Yes, $3,298 (65% win rate)
  6. 0xd426...334a Yes, $2,829 (35% win rate)
  7. 0xfd66...fb6d No, $2,586 (14% win rate)
  8. 0xfc2f...10c7 No, $2,479 (88% win rate)
  9. 0x6e4b...3c6d No, $1,796
  10. 0x614d...1546 Yes, $1,779 (66% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?

1d$1,062 tracked1 signalPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics
Yes
76¢
No
24¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
79¢
57¢
36¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?

2h ago

$1,062 on Yes at 78¢

78¢76¢2¢

Related Theses

US-Iran Diplomatic Meeting Odds on Polymarket | PolySpotter