US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?
This Polymarket asks whether authorized representatives of the United States and Iran will hold an official diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026. The market resolves Yes only if a direct, deliberate meeting on US-Iran relations takes place before the deadline; indirect contacts or unofficial discussions do not count. Traders watching US-Iran tensions, ceasefire diplomacy, and broader geopolitics use this market to gauge the odds of a formal breakthrough.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,062.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
93% win-rate bettor
A historically elite wallet with a 93% win rate and strong edge is buying into a fast-moving geopolitical market, making this a notable thesis to watch despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 93% of their trades and is up about $57k across 808 resolved positions
- They bought Yes at 78¢ in a geopolitical market after a 37.5-point one-day move, suggesting they still see upside
- They are building a related three-market thesis around the same event, which adds confidence beyond a one-off bet
$1,062 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%
Top Holders
- 0x6d9f...9790 — No, $8,000 (62% win rate)
- 0x68c2...1711 — Yes, $6,458 (57% win rate)
- 0x853c...bd03 — Yes, $3,932 (50% win rate)
- 0xc4b2...9a9b — No, $3,874 (87% win rate)
- 0x3201...6634 — Yes, $3,298 (65% win rate)
- 0xd426...334a — Yes, $2,829 (35% win rate)
- 0xfd66...fb6d — No, $2,586 (14% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — No, $2,479 (88% win rate)
- 0x6e4b...3c6d — No, $1,796
- 0x614d...1546 — Yes, $1,779 (66% win rate)
