Part of: Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?
This Polymarket-style prediction market asks whether Variational's governance token will have a fully diluted valuation above $500 million one day after launch. FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price, with launch requiring the token to be publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves based on the token's FDV at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch, with a listed resolution date of January 1, 2028.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,772.
Categories: Crypto, Pre-Market, Variational, fdv
Notable Trades
96% winner buying quiet crypto launch
A high-win-rate wallet with $47k profit made a fresh Yes bet on a quiet crypto FDV market, though the size is modest and price has moved against them.
- This bettor has won 23 of 24 resolved trades and is up $47k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 50¢ in a quiet market with only $5.5k traded in the last day.
- The market is niche and crypto-related, where an informed view on launch valuation could matter.
$1,815 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 96%
12-0 bettor buying Yes
A wallet with a perfect 12-for-12 resolved record just made a nearly $4k bet equivalent to buying Yes at 22¢, and the size was over 7.7x this market’s recent trading volume.
- This bettor has won 12 of 12 resolved trades and is up $84.5k lifetime
- Their trade was bigger than 7.7x the market’s recent volume, showing clear conviction
- Selling No at 78¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 22¢, close to the current 21-22¢ market
$3,957 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0x9d32...0fb9 — Yes, $32,472 (96% win rate)
- 0x6138...97a0 — No, $13,555 (51% win rate)
- 0x99f6...37fc — No, $12,577
- 0x5ccf...fca1 — Yes, $9,792 (100% win rate)
- 0x0826...0b32 — No, $8,000 (62% win rate)
- 0x014c...820c — No, $7,867 (39% win rate)
- 0xa92d...23ed — Yes, $6,830
- 0x7e6e...98d2 — No, $6,299 (99% win rate)
- 0x4818...bf0b — Yes, $6,186 (52% win rate)
- 0xa3e9...63d0 — No, $5,497 (73% win rate)
