Part of: FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-03?
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,496.
Categories: Sports, bundesliga, Games, Soccer
Notable Trades
Sharp bettor fading 90¢ favorite
A profitable high-volume sports bettor is fading a major Mainz price move by selling Yes at 90¢, effectively taking No at 10¢.
- This bettor has won 76% of 1,063 resolved bets and is up $165K lifetime.
- They are fading a big move after Yes jumped 53 percentage points in a day.
- Selling Yes at 90¢ is equivalent to buying No at 10¢ for a long-shot comeback or draw angle.
$2,068 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
95% sharp buying NO
A highly profitable 95% win-rate sports trader took a contrarian No position, though the market has since moved sharply against the entry.
- This bettor wins 95% of resolved bets and is up $198K lifetime.
- They have traded across 62 events with the same 95% hit rate, suggesting a repeatable sports edge.
- They bought No at 63¢ while it now trades near 12¢, making this a high-risk contrarian follow.
$2,520 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
Serial last-minute sports bettor
Serial near-resolution sports bettor sold No at 62¢ (equivalent to buying Yes at 38¢) exactly at the deadline, and the market has since moved to 88¢ Yes.
- This bettor has made 115 last-minute bets across 88 markets and is up $10.9k overall.
- They effectively bought Yes at 38¢, far below the current 88¢ market price.
- The timing is the key signal: the trade hit exactly at the listed resolution time on a live sports market.
$2,486 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 51%
Sharp serial sports bettor
Sharp, profitable serial cross-market bettor is taking a modest BUY No position with a strong 367-bet track record.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up about $120K lifetime.
- They have traded across 26 events, suggesting a repeatable sports-betting process rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 64¢ means they are backing Mainz not to win despite the market already leaning that way.
$1,422 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Top Holders
- 0x44c5...8d45 — Outcome 88618646, $41,128 (78% win rate)
- 0x12b9...3ec2 — Outcome 88618646, $27,220 (48% win rate)
- 0xf57e...bbd6 — Outcome 88618646, $4,000 (63% win rate)
- 0xfe78...0319 — Outcome 88618646, $3,767 (65% win rate)
- 0x3f3a...e8fd — Outcome 88618646, $3,053 (64% win rate)
- 0x160b...4296 — Outcome 88618646, $2,120 (76% win rate)
- 0x9495...9a27 — Outcome 88618646, $1,571 (64% win rate)
- 0xbe54...3edd — Outcome 88618646, $962 (92% win rate)
- 0x6945...873d — Outcome 88618646, $806 (100% win rate)
- 0x47fb...0c7b — Outcome 88618646, $500
