What does this 2026 hottest year prediction market measure?

This market measures where 2026 ranks among all recorded years in the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, with rank 1 meaning the hottest year on record.

How does the market resolve if 2026 ties another year?

If 2026 ties with another year, the market uses the place occupied by the tied year. For example, if 2026 ties for the hottest reading, it resolves at rank 1.

When will this Polymarket on 2026 temperatures resolve?

The market resolves as soon as the relevant 2026 temperature ranking data is available, even if that happens before the end of the calendar year listed on the market page.

Why are traders watching this climate prediction market?

Traders use this market to price the probability that 2026 will surpass recent record-hot years, based on global climate trends, temperature anomalies, and updated scientific data.

What smart money activity is showing on this market?

PolySpotter is tracking $9,242 in smart money activity across this market, with 1 signal recently detected, including a profitable new wallet buying Yes.

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

This Polymarket tracks whether 2026 will finish as the hottest year ever recorded based on the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. The market resolves when the official temperature ranking for 2026 becomes available, with ties taking the rank of the tied year. PolySpotter is currently tracking $9,242 in smart money on this market, including 1 recent signal and a profitable new wallet buying Yes.

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $9,242.

Categories: Science, Culture, Global Temp, Weather, Climate & Science, Weather & Science

Notable Trades

Profitable new wallet buying Yes

A 2-day-old wallet with repeat large bets and early $65k profit just put $9.2k into Yes on a climate market, including fresh size at 34¢ in a trade bigger than the market’s prior 24h volume.

This 2-day-old wallet has already been flagged 13 times and is up about $65k despite being brand new.
They just bought $9.2k of Yes, with the main fill at 34¢ after also buying earlier at 50¢, showing conviction while the market now prices this at only 34%.
This order was about 194% of the market’s earlier 24-hour volume, so the bettor was willing to push size into a relatively quiet market.

$9,242 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%