How does the 2026 hottest year prediction market resolve?

Years are ranked from hottest to coolest using the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. The market resolves according to 2026’s numerical rank.

What happens if 2026 ties another year?

If 2026 ties another year, it resolves according to the place occupied by the year it ties with, as specified by the market rules.

When will the 2026 hottest year market resolve?

The market resolves immediately once the specified temperature data becomes available. Its listed resolution date is December 31, 2026.

Where can I track 2026 hottest year prediction market odds?

You can follow the market’s live trading price and activity on Polymarket, including signals from tracked smart-money wallets.

Part of: Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

Q: Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

This market tracks whether 2026 ranks number one among all years measured by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index.

This prediction market asks whether 2026 will rank first as the hottest year in the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. It resolves when the relevant data becomes available, with the listed resolution date of December 31, 2026; current odds are determined by market trading.

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,353.

Categories: Science, Culture, Global Temp, Weather, Climate & Science, Weather & Science

Notable Trades

Serial sharp bettor buys Yes

A highly profitable serial trader with an 83% win rate and substantial edge placed a fresh $3,112 Yes bet in a relatively thin market.

This bettor wins 83% of 167 resolved trades and is up $1.07 million.
They bought $3,112 of Yes at 38% in a market with only $3,859 of liquidity.
The wallet has traded across 44 events and 59 markets, suggesting broad and repeatable expertise rather than a one-off bet.

$3,112 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

Profitable new wallet buying Yes

A 2-day-old wallet with repeat large bets and early $65k profit just put $9.2k into Yes on a climate market, including fresh size at 34¢ in a trade bigger than the market’s prior 24h volume.

This 2-day-old wallet has already been flagged 13 times and is up about $65k despite being brand new.
They just bought $9.2k of Yes, with the main fill at 34¢ after also buying earlier at 50¢, showing conviction while the market now prices this at only 34%.
This order was about 194% of the market’s earlier 24-hour volume, so the bettor was willing to push size into a relatively quiet market.

$9,242 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%