Part of: Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

This Polymarket market asks whether 2026 will be the second-hottest year on record based on the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index ranking. It resolves once the relevant 2026 temperature data is available, with the listed resolution date set for December 31, 2026. PolySpotter currently tracks $6,516 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market.

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,424.

Categories: Science, Culture, Global Temp, Weather, Climate & Science, Weather & Science

Notable Trades

84% sharp in thin market

Proven profitable wallet with an 84% resolved win rate placed a large low-liquidity cross-market climate bet, including buying No on this market at 37¢.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved bets and is up $773K lifetime.
  • They put $6.5K into related climate markets despite only $52 of 24h volume here.
  • This wallet has traded across 38 events with the same strong 84% hit rate.

$6,516 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

Profitable serial specialist

Proven profitable cross-market trader with a 75% long-run win rate is adding a ~$2.9k Yes position in a moderately quiet climate market.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 1,032 resolved trades and is up $3.36M lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.37M placed across 125 markets in 82 events.
  • Entry at 53¢ suggests they see Yes as underpriced despite the market already sitting near even odds.

$2,908 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $131,208
  2. 0xf2f6...5817 Yes, $91,697 (75% win rate)
  3. 0x4a2b...af20 Yes, $8,000 (48% win rate)
  4. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $6,000 (47% win rate)
  5. 0x64db...8c8e Yes, $5,000 (61% win rate)
  6. 0x955c...990f Yes, $4,000 (74% win rate)
  7. 0x3069...f8ef Yes, $3,800 (71% win rate)
  8. 0x562b...dc09 No, $2,561 (95% win rate)
  9. 0x0845...6b6f Yes, $2,240 (70% win rate)
  10. 0x54b5...4b31 Yes, $2,000 (41% win rate)

Related Theses

Fujimori or Sánchez wins presidency

Covers 2 related markets

Neither Chong nor Oh wins

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 4 related markets

Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

164dWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?$9,424 tracked2 signalsScienceCultureGlobal TempWeatherClimate & ScienceWeather & Science
Yes
59¢
No
42¢

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
65¢
61¢
57¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

6d ago

$6,516 on No at 37¢

37¢42¢5¢

Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

69d ago

$2,908 on Yes at 53¢

53¢59¢6¢

Related Theses