This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades across 2,332 bets and is up $23,487 lifetime. They bought $2,490 of No in a market with only $2,289 liquidity, showing meaningful conviction. Entry at 83¢ has already moved to 88¢, suggesting the market is following their side.

Part of: World Cup: No. of Matches Decided by Penalty Shootout

Will 9+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,234.

Categories: Sports, Tournament Futures, world cup, FIFA World Cup, Soccer, 2026 FIFA World Cup

Notable Trades

89% winner buying No

Sharp wallet with an 89% win rate over 2,332 resolved bets bought No on a quiet World Cup shootout-count market despite only a weak low-activity signal.

This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades across 2,332 bets and is up $23,487 lifetime.
They bought $2,490 of No in a market with only $2,289 liquidity, showing meaningful conviction.
Entry at 83¢ has already moved to 88¢, suggesting the market is following their side.

$2,490 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

94% World Cup specialist

Sharp wallet with a 94% resolved win rate and positive P&L bought No on a thin World Cup shootout market as part of a broader cross-market thesis.

This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades and is up $43k lifetime.
They put $4.6k on No in a thin market, more than 2x the recent 24h volume.
This is part of a broader World Cup shootout thesis across 4 markets totaling $24.8k.

$4,641 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%

98% winner buying thin No

A highly profitable 98% winner put $5.1k into No on a very thin World Cup penalty-shootout market, moving the price sharply higher.

This bettor wins 98% of resolved trades and is up $43k lifetime.
They put $5.1k into No on a market with only $830 liquidity and a wide spread.
The position pushed No from as low as 44¢ to 88¢, suggesting strong conviction.

$5,103 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%

Top Holders

0xd5d8...e9a1 — Outcome 54247564, $7,000 (59% win rate)
0x9bf6...4a06 — Outcome 54247564, $1,977
0x3879...d8c3 — Outcome 54247564, $1,000
0x56c2...6219 — Outcome 54247564, $1,000
0x60a8...7d37 — Outcome 54247564, $216
0x0c99...87cf — Outcome 54247564, $200
0x75cb...1556 — Outcome 54247564, $150
0x4af7...9842 — Outcome 54247564, $107
0x4b8a...f4a4 — Outcome 54247564, $100
0xa1a0...2746 — Outcome 54247564, $89 (92% win rate)

Related Theses

Established nations reach knockouts

Covers 7 related markets

World Cup shootouts stay under six

Covers 4 related markets

Four to six shootouts

Covers 4 related markets

Will 9+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

ResolvedWorld Cup: No. of Matches Decided by Penalty Shootout$12,234 tracked3 signalsSportsTournament Futuresworld cupFIFA World CupSoccer2026 FIFA World Cup

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total number of matches decided by a penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup equals or exceeds the listed number. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A match is counted if it proceeds to a penalty shootout to determine the result. Only knockout-stage matches can be decided by shootout. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed matches. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the exact total cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.