What is the Abraham Accords prediction market asking?

It asks whether any country not already part of the Abraham Accords will formally sign a qualifying normalization agreement with Israel before the end of 2026.

When does this Abraham Accords market resolve?

The market resolves on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, based on whether a qualifying agreement has been formally signed by then.

What counts as a new country joining the Abraham Accords?

A country must publicly sign an official agreement with Israel, with both governments acknowledging it and clearly attributing it to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.

What do the smart money signals show?

The listed recent alerts show proven traders buying No, including a serial trader described as scaling into the No outcome.

Where can I track the market’s odds and updates?

You can follow the live Yes and No prices, market activity, and smart money signals on the PolySpotter page for this Polymarket market.

Part of: Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

This prediction market asks whether a country not currently in the Abraham Accords will formally sign a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework by December 31, 2026. The market resolves Yes only after a publicly acknowledged agreement attributed to the Abraham Accords or its continuation; recent smart money alerts show buying activity on No.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,770.

Categories: Geopolitics, Middle East, Gaza, Israel

Notable Trades

93% winner scaling into No

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 93% win rate is adding $2,518 to an existing No position in a relatively thin market.

This bettor has won 93% of 94 resolved trades and is up $79,123 lifetime.
They added $2,518 to an existing No position at 75¢, signaling increased conviction that no new agreement will be signed.
The trade represented about 178% of the market’s recent 24-hour volume, while No has risen to 78%.

$2,518 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

Proven serial trader buys No

A highly experienced bettor with a 77% win rate and $478,613 profit is taking a fresh position on No at 60%.

This bettor has won 77% of 914 resolved trades and earned $478,613 in profit.
The wallet has traded 602 events, suggesting broad and experienced market coverage rather than a one-off bet.
It bought No at 60%, below the current 64% market price, with the position already moving in its favor.

$1,052 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Proven serial trader buys No

A highly experienced bettor with a 77% win rate and $478,613 profit is taking a fresh position on No at 60%.

This bettor has won 77% of 914 resolved trades and earned $478,613 in profit.
The wallet has traded 602 events, suggesting broad and experienced market coverage rather than a one-off bet.
It bought No at 60%, below the current 64% market price, with the position already moving in its favor.

$1,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%